Oilers Doomed for Regression Ahead of NHL All-Star Break

In reality, the Edmonton Oilers likely fall somewhere on the spectrum between their absolute performances early this season. 

Edmonton started off the season in one of the worst tailspins in team history. The Oilers mustered just two wins through their first 12 games, sinking them to the bottom of the standings. The slide cost Jay Woodcroft and Jack Campbell their jobs, precipitating a coaching change that would eventually help them snap out of their early-season funk.

Still, their record since then isn’t an accurate representation of what this team is capable of either. After going 3-3-0 in their first six games under Kris Knoblauch, the Oilers went on to win 21 of 24 games since. 

In doing so, the proud-again Oilers have set themselves on a collision course with regression. 

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Too Hot to Handle

Connor McDavid and Company have been completely untouchable over their current 13-game win streak. Over this stretch, Edmonton has out-scored its opponents 38-18 at five-on-five and 50-22 across all strengths. 

Stuart Skinner

Although the Oilers’ offense gets a lot of credit for their accomplishments, this team wouldn’t be where they are without a resurgent Stuart Skinner. 

The Calder Trophy runner-up from last season has rekindled the form that helped lead Edmonton to one of its most successful regular seasons ever. Skinner has been in net for ten of the Oilers’ past 13 wins, posting a Hart Trophy-worthy .945% save percentage and 1.48 goals against average.

Edmonton’s Offense is Still Good Though

Obviously, that’s not to discount the Oilers’ scoring ability. Knoblauch has extracted more production from the team’s bottom two lines, amplifying the offensive output. Over that same 13-game sample, the Oilers have combined for an 11.2% shooting percentage across all strengths, including 10.7% at five-on-five, for an average of 3.8 goals per game.

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PDO

Combining both of the above-noted metrics reveals a PDO that is teetering on the edge of regression. At five-on-five, Edmonton is operating at a 1.038 PDO, jumping to 1.051 across all strengths.

As noted, Edmonton has maximized its production on both ends of the ice, necessitating the question — what cracks first?

Skinner’s Correction Phase

Oilers fans should brace themselves for a letdown between the pipes ahead of the All-Star Break. 

Skinner is due for a cooling-off period following an extended run of scorching play. His ten-game winning streak tied a franchise record for wins in a row by a goalie, and his save percentage and goals against average are better than they’ve ever been. 

Using his career benchmarks as comparative points, Skinner is over 3.0% higher in save percentage and 1.2 points below typical goals against.

Like the cold winds blowing into Alberta, it’s going to get a little more frigid in the Oilers’ blue paint. 

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Final Thoughts

Despite the anticipated regression, Edmonton has put the league on notice. The Oilers remain a force to be reckoned with, and they appear committed to making the most of the Connor McDavid and Leon Draisaitl era. Seeing where they ended up after their disastrous start is a reminder of how skilled this team is.

It’s much easier to maintain a playoff position than climb back into one, especially after a 2-9-1 start. The hardest part of the Oilers’ ascent is over. Now, it’s all about getting hot at the right time of year and reaching the heights everyone sees they are capable of.