The Ultimate +900 Same Game Parlay for Bills at Dolphins

Week 18 of the NFL season is upon us, and we have a Sunday Night Football matchup between the Buffalo Bills and Miami Dolphins with the AFC East title on the line. As a result, we couldn’t resist working up an ultimate same-game parlay to close out the regular season the right way.

Valued at +900, let’s ride.

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Looking at the regular season overall, 11 of 16 Bills games and 12 of 16 Dolphins games have gone over 41.5 points. When these two clubs met back in Week 4, the Bills routed the Dolphins 48-20 for a staggering total of 68, so in what should be a back-and-forth affair Sunday night, I’d be shocked if each team didn’t manage 21 points each. 

With how the injury bug is treating the Miami Dolphins, taking Tyreek Hill to score two touchdowns might be the way to go, but given the speculation that Jaylen Waddle may still play, we’ll play it a bit safer. Hill is questionable to play, but I’m far less worried about his status than with Waddle. After Hill’s aggravating touchdown drop last week, I expect him to bounce back, as he has a touchdown in 10 of 15 games this season. Plus, I can’t see Hill not finding the endzone for a fourth consecutive game. Looking at his yardage, we’ll play it more conservatively, as he’s had at least 80 yards in 10 of 15 games this season. We know his upside is much higher, so if you’re expecting the Dolphins to win this game, you might as well take his regular line of 94.5 in this parlay.

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Josh Allen has combined for eight rushing touchdowns over his past five games and has 15 rushing touchdowns over the past 14 games. If our alternate over projects for three touchdowns from each team, then there is little chance that Allen isn’t one of those scores. Individually, getting Allen at -120 to rush for a touchdown is worth a two-unit hammer.

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Stefon Diggs has only exceeded 50 receiving yards once across the last seven weeks, which makes this a questionable leg, but I don’t expect this to be a close, low-scoring game where the Bills keep the ball mainly on the ground. Allen has only completed 37 passes over the last three weeks, so I’m banking on a much heavier game through the air, feeding right into what we need from Diggs, as he had at least 50 receiving yards in all nine prior games before this current slump.

Gabe Davis has averaged 67 yards over his last six games against the Dolphins, and we’re counting on a much higher passing output from Allen for Davis to get us our 25 yards. I’m looking at this like all or nothing, so if Allen ends up attempting around 40 passes, we can confidently expect Diggs and Davis to get us our necessary yards.

All Odds Courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

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