UFC 297: Strickland vs. du Plessis Preview & Best Bets

A UFC Middleweight title bout headlines UFC 297 as the champion Sean Strickland defends his title against No. 2 ranked Dricus du Plessis.

• Date: Saturday, January 20, 2024 | Time: 10:00 p.m. ET
• Venue: Scotiabank Arena – Toronto, Ontario, Canada | TV: PPV

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No. 13 ranked and resident welterweight journeyman Neil “The Haitian Sensation” Magny faces unranked Mike “Proper” Malott. The 36-year-old Magny has alternated wins and losses dating back to 2021, 4-4 over his last eight. Malott has won six in a row, all finishes (2 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions).

Magny is two inches taller and has a massive seven-inch reach advantage. Malott has more stopping power, averaging 1.01 knockdowns per 15 minutes. He also lands 0.76 more significant strikes per minute. Both fighters average over two takedowns per 15 minutes. Malott has a zero percent takedown defense rate but averages 1.25 submissions more per 15 minutes.

Magny is a test to see where Malott belongs in the UFC. For all intents and purposes, Magny is a gatekeeper for the upper echelon of the division, losing to contenders like Shavkat Rakhmonov, Gilbert Burns, and Ian Machado Garry but beating guys like Philip Rowe, Daniel Rodriguez, and Max Griffin.

Malott is a significant favorite at -350 and has more ways to win. Magny is a well-rounded fighter but not overwhelming in any regard. A Malott double chance winning submission or by points improves our odds to -140.

No. 2 ranked women’s bantamweight Raquel “Rocky” Pennington takes on No. 3 Mayra “Sheetara” Bueno Silva for the vacant UFC Women’s Bantamweight Championship. Pennington enters this bout on a five-fight win streak (1 Submission, 4 Decisions). Bueno Silva is unbeaten over her last four fights, beating Wu Yanan and submitting Stephanie Egger and Lina Lansberg. She also submitted Holly Holm, but it was overturned after Bueno Silva tested positive for Ritalinic acid.

Pennington is an inch taller and has an inch-reach advantage. Neither fighter has any one punch power, and they land significant strikes at a similar rate. However, Bueno Silva absorbs 1.37 more significant strikes per minute. Pennington has a slight takedown advantage, but Bueno Silva has a clear submission edge.

At -170, Bueno Silva is favored, but if this match goes the distance, it should go Pennington’s way. Take Pennington by decision at +240.

Sean Strickland vs. Dricus du Plessis

• Odds to Win: Strickland -125 | du Plessis -102
• How Will Fight End: KO/TKO -145 | Submission +460 | Decision +200
• Will the fight go the distance? Yes +210 | No -290

Over his previous three fights, Sean “Tarzan” Strickland picked up a win at light heavyweight against Nassourdine Imavov, beat Abusupiyan Magomedov in his return to middleweight, and then took it to Israel Adesanya to win the UFC Middleweight title. Opposite the champ will be Dricus “Stillknocks” du Plessis. Du Plessis is on an eight-fight win streak, most recently knocking out former champ Robert Whittaker.

Both fighters are six-foot-one-inch tall and have an identical 76-inch reach. Stillknocks has more one-punch knockout power, averaging 1.09 knockdowns per 15 minutes to Tarzan’s 0.31. Du Plessis lands an impressive volume of significant strikes at 6.95 per minute, while Strickland averages 5.82. Still, du Plessis absorbs 0.45 fewer significant strikes.

Strickland has 15 finishes in 33 fights (11 KO/TKO, 4 Submissions), but du Plessis has finished 19 of his 22 career bouts (9 KO/TKO, 10 Submissions). Du Plessis should have the offensive grappling advantage, averaging 1.8 more takedowns and 0.89 more submissions per 15 minutes, but Strickland has an impressive 85 percent takedown defense rate.

At -125, Strickland is a slight favorite, but if it doesn’t go the distance, I think it favors a du Plessis finish. Take du Plessis outright at -102.

• Malott by submission or points (-140)
• Pennington by decision (+240)
• du Plessis to win (-102)

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