Theo Epstein Should Look to Deal, Even as Red Sox Get Healthy

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Jul 13, 2010

Theo Epstein Should Look to Deal, Even as Red Sox Get Healthy Theo Epstein has never shied from making major changes at the trade deadline. Many of his moves have proven to be winners, most notably the Nomar Garciaparra three-team deal in 2004 and the acquisitions of Jason Bay and Victor Martinez the last two years.

Not every year has brought a blockbuster, however, and 2010 may be another in which Epstein stays quiet.

When Epstein glances at his club the holes are obvious, but so many of them will be plugged up when injured players work their way back, many of them before the July 31 trade deadline and a few just beyond it.

With Martinez and Jason Varitek both healthy, the Sox have one of the top catching tandems in baseball, if not the best. Martinez should be back from a broken thumb within the next week or two and Varitek’s recovery from a broken foot leaves him with about four weeks before he can back up Martinez again.

Forty percent of the starting rotation — Josh Beckett and Clay Buchholz — will rejoin the club before the trade deadline. Once they do, Boston will again have six healthy starting pitchers, a scenario it coveted early on and one which proved necessary.

In addition to Martinez and Buchholz, Dustin Pedroia represents a third injured All-Star on the mend. He said during the All-Star break that he could be back during the team’s upcoming 10-game West Coast trip and there isn’t a soul on the planet that doubts Pedroia’s ability to come back strong.

Toss in the return of a key reliever in Manny Delcarmen and potential outfield reinforcements in Jacoby Ellsbury (beginning rehab this week in Florida) and Jeremy Hermida and the Sox have roughly one-third a roster that could be on the field together in the next month or so.

Few teams, even the most aggressive buyers at the deadline, will be hard pressed to get such an upgrade before July 31.

Which begs the question: Does Epstein need to do anything?

In a word, yes. There are question marks surrounding Ellsbury and what he and Hermida can offer when they return. While the fill-ins for the battered outfield (Daniel Nava, Darnell McDonald, etc.) have exceeded expectations, the club does not boast a particularly prolific outfield — Boston’s OPS at each position in the outfield ranks no better than seventh in the American League.

The Sox will remain interested in potential upgrades in the outfield, and have already been linked to Philadelphia’s Jayson Werth, Kansas City’s David DeJesus and others.

The glaring hole referenced earlier resides in the bullpen, the one area of the team that undoubtedly needs a fix.

The Sox’ relievers enter the break with a 4.71 ERA, 13th in the AL. They have given up a major league-high 40 home runs. Only seven bullpens in the majors have allowed a higher OPS than the .758 figure that opponents have accrued vs. Boston.

The back end of the pen is just fine. Despite having some rather unsightly blown saves and a few peripheral numbers not on par with his career norms, Jonathan Papelbon remains a top-tier closer. He has saved 20-of-23 and is holding opponents to a .212 average, his best mark since 2007.

Daniel Bard has been electric as the setup man but has thrown more innings out of the bullpen than all but four other AL relievers, none of whom owns a role as important as Bard.

Those two need some assistance. Delcarmen provided it early on until a forearm issue popped up, landing him on the DL. He is expected back just after the break but his recent history of arm and shoulder issues suggests that the righty will be given plenty of rest.

That’s exactly what the Sox have tried to give Hideki Okajima, whose descent through mediocrity last season has continued in 2010, when he finds himself sporting an ERA of 6.00 and an opponents’ batting average of .330. A sore back may be hurting his cause this year.

Ramon Ramirez has pitched better of late, Scott Atchison has had some nice moments — including one in an emergency start — and recent addition Dustin Richardson, a left-hander, has taken some of the pressure off Okajima.

Overall it is a fairly average lot that has forced the organization to press Triple-A starter Michael Bowden into a relieving role in preparation for a potential call-up. The 23-year-old was 4-3 with a 3.77 ERA in 16 starts before he threw three times out of the bullpen in the last week, amassing four scoreless innings and a pair of victories.

A promotion of Bowden could come before the trade deadline, one of many internal moves that may render the Red Sox observers during the trading season. But don’t count against Epstein shaking things up.

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