Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein said last week at the baseball winter meetings that there would be a point at which the market broke for big-name relievers. Essentially, it could break a couple of different ways.
Once those on the rather large list of quality relievers began to dwindle, they would either find one-year deals for money on par with what they could offer, or they would continue the early offseason trend by getting more in terms of years and dollars than relievers normally get on the open market. That theme was established when Joaquin Benoit, coming off one of the few good years he has ever had, got three years and $16.5 million from Detroit.
It seems as if Epstein’s worst fears in this matter are becoming reality. Matt Guerrier on Wednesday became the latest bullpen arm to ink a three-year deal, signing with the Los Angeles Dodgers and taking away another of Boston’s options for the pen.
Guerrier’s signing comes days after the Angels agreed to a three-year, $15 million contract with Scott Downs. Both players were being eyed at one time or another by Epstein, who said he would go to that third year and play with the idea of paying top dollar but only “for the right player.”
That list is now down to a handful of notable names. Rafael Soriano tops the list, although he will be looking for a closer’s role that might not be available immediately in Boston. Kerry Wood, Brian Fuentes, Jon Rauch, Kevin Gregg, Bobby Jenks, Jesse Crain and Grant Balfour are among the others who have to like the way the market has played out for them.
Only Soriano is a Type A free agent and would cost a team a draft pick. Both Downs and Guerrier had that status, so at least Epstein avoids coughing up another one of those.
Most should be demanding multi-year deals, and could end up being overpaid, simply due to the absolute need for bullpen help on the part of teams like the Red Sox, who are going to have to pony up if they want proven relief pitchers. Guerrier’s signing has not helped the cause for guys like Epstein.