This is it. Everything's in place. These are the Red Sox that will vie for their place in October.
Victor Martinez, shipped to the Red Sox in a four-player deal with Cleveland, is here. Alex Gonzalez, after three years of wandering away from Boston, has made his return. Kevin Youkilis, fresh off a five-game suspension, is back. Dustin Pedroia has dove headfirst into fatherhood, and now he's back in the Red Sox' starting nine.
With everyone back, there are countless possibilities. In the end, how will the Sox' lineup shake out? Perhaps no one knows. Not even Terry Francona.
But eventually, with the dog days of summer dwindling away and the heated September pennant race coming up, the Sox will need to find their optimal nine. So who goes where, and who bats when? There are a million ways to settle this, but here's what works best:
1. Jacoby Ellsbury, center field. With a .299 average and 53 steals, Ellsbury is automatic for the Red Sox at the top spot in the batting order. But to develop into a truly elite leadoff man, Ellsbury still needs one thing: walks. He's only taken 32 free passes this season, meaning that his on-base percentage of .346 ranks him sixth among these nine starters. Less than ideal — the Red Sox would like a leadoff man who made an out less than 65 percent of the time. Ellsbury can hit and he can clearly run, but he's still got work to do.
2. Dustin Pedroia, second base. Makes sense as a No. 2 hitter — he's not going to dazzle you with the long ball, but he can bounce one off the Monster with regularity, leading the team with 34 doubles this season. Father Dustin also brings the Sox a .370 OBP, making him a solid table-setter to bridge the way to the real meat of the Red Sox' order.
3. Kevin Youkilis, first base. Here's the real meat. With a .983 OPS, Youk has been the Red Sox' star this season. He has 49 extra-base hits (28 doubles, a triple and 20 home runs) in 2009, giving him plenty of pop to fuel a Sox rally when they need it most. One of the best No. 3 hitters in the league.
4. Jason Bay, left field. One week, he's slumping. The next, he's Roy Hobbs. Bay has broken out of a post-All-Star break malaise and gone deep six times in his last nine games. He's now back to being the Sox' star cleanup hitter. Bay sports 27 homers and 86 RBIs this year and is closing in on the fourth 30-homer season of his career.
5. Victor Martinez, catcher. It's never easy to bump the captain out of the starting nine for a newcomer, but Martinez's prowess at the plate makes this one unavoidable. The Sox' new catcher has already gone deep four times, and he's been here less than three weeks. His .854 OPS makes him one of the elite catchers in the game. Sorry, Jason Varitek.
6. J.D. Drew, right field. He's the kind of player that when he slumps, everyone loves to boo. He's the highest-paid Red Sox player since Manny Ramirez left town last season, and no one likes watching a guy rake in $14 million to hit .251. But Drew has hidden value — he's an on-base machine, boasting an OBP of .369 this season and .384 since arriving in Boston three years ago. Drew's an efficient hitter that can outperform almost every No. 6 hitter in baseball. No complaints here.
7. Mike Lowell, third base. Lowell may have turned 35 in spring training and slowed a bit with injuries, but he's still managed to slug .491 this season. With 14 homers and 23 doubles in a DL-shortened season to date, Lowell still has plenty of pop left — he's earned the right to stay in the Sox' starting nine.
8. David Ortiz, designated hitter. It's been a sad decline for Big Papi this season. With a .226 average in 2009, his performance sure doesn't look enhanced — in fact, it's been depressing to watch Ortiz's career as it moves in the other direction. Papi may still be a regular starter, but eighth in the Sox' order is probably where he belongs.
9. Nick Green, shortstop. Yes, Gonzalez is now on board, but it's hard to justify starting him after you've examined his numbers at the plate. Green's batting line of .232/.298/.369 doesn't exactly blow you away, but he looks like Ted Williams when compared to the newly acquired Gonzalez (.209/.255/.295 when you combine his numbers in Cincinnati and Boston). Defense is nice, but it's not worth sacrificing over 100 points of OPS. Gonzalez would be better off sticking to a defensive replacement role.
Not too shabby. By sticking with this starting nine, the Red Sox have themselves a versatile and capable bench — they've got Jason Varitek behind the plate, Casey Kotchman as a corner infielder with some pop, and Gonzalez bringing some defense up the middle. Depending on injuries, either Rocco Baldelli or Brian Anderson can tag along as a fourth outfielder, with Josh Reddick waiting in the minors as well.
The Sox have the talent and the depth to carry them from here to October. And along the way, they'll probably try out a dozen or more different lineups that can get them there.
But when push comes to shove, only one lineup card can be the best. Ultimately, this is it.
