There should be no debating this. Lester is 25, he's shown unlimited potential, and he lets absolutely nothing get in his way. He has the determination to be the best power pitcher in the game.
So when the Sox tabbed Lester as their No. 1 starter for the first round of the American League playoffs and longtime ace Josh Beckett as their No. 2, it should have come as no surprise. For these Red Sox, at this point in time, Lester and then Beckett is the way to go.
But it takes more than just one great pitcher, or even two, to win in October. The Sox will need a balanced effort from their rotation from top to bottom. If they can't get it, they'll be watching the Angels in the ALCS from home.
So where do the Sox' arms stand? They've got a mixed bag of the inexperienced and the oft-injured poised to take the mound over the course of the next week, but that doesn't mean they can't win. Taking them one by one:
Lester, despite the injury he sustained 10 days ago in Yankee Stadium, is the most reliable hurler on the Sox staff right now. The season appeared to be in jeopardy on Sept. 25 when Lester took a line drive from Melky Cabrera off his right knee, but Lester has since returned to the mound and silenced all doubters. The following start against the Indians last Thursday — 6 1/3 innings, no runs on two hits, seven strikeouts — tells you everything you need to know.
Since the All-Star break, Lester has made 14 starts and gone 7-2. He regularly pitches into the seventh inning or later, and he's put up a 2.82 ERA in 89 1/3 innings. He's struck out 94 batters and walked 29. Remember when his control used to be a question mark? Seems like an eternity ago.
Lester is ready to be an ace for a World Series winner. But as for the rest of the Sox' hurlers …
Beckett was the best pitcher in baseball throughout May and June. That's what made him an All-Star. But since then, he's been erratic. The Sox righty put up a 5.03 ERA in August, allowing 12 home runs in six starts. His most recent start, while it may have netted him his 17th win, featured four runs from the Indians in the first two innings.
To give the Red Sox a chance, Beckett has to do better than that. But if history is any indication, he probably will. Beckett always slows down in the dog days of summer — for his career, he has a 4.43 ERA in August but a 2.95 mark in September and October.
The truth is that Beckett is a competitor, and what he wants more than anything is to win when it really matters. You can see it in his eyes — he'll be ready. A meaningless start against the Indians is one thing, but staring down the Angels in the ALDS is another altogether.
Clay Buchholz is another mystery. Two weeks ago, Buchholz looked like one of the best young pitchers in baseball — he gave the Sox 6 2/3 shutout innings in Kansas City on Sept. 24, giving him a streak of eight consecutive unbeaten starts. His ERA was down to 3.21.
Now, it's 4.21. In a matter of weeks, it's jumped a full run. Buchholz has allowed a leadoff home run in back-to-back starts, and against the Blue Jays last Tuesday, he was taken deep five times. That's right, five.
Which Buchholz will show up in October? We'll have to wait and see. Given his youth and inexperience, this won't be easy to predict. The Sox are sure hoping they get the wunderkind they saw dominating in September.
OK, who's next?
What's that? Did someone say Daisuke Matsuzaka?
If I'd told you a month ago that Dice-K had the inside track on the fourth spot in the Red Sox' playoff rotation, you'd have put me in a mental institution. But after messing up his shoulder earlier in the season and taking the slow, painful road back to the major leagues, it appears the 29-year-old righty is as good as new.
His stats in four starts since returning to the big leagues: 3-1, 2.22 ERA, .237 opponents' batting average, 20 strikeouts in 24 1/3 innings. He hasn't allowed more than three runs yet in a start. And he works his way out of trouble better than Harvey Keitel in Pulp Fiction.
If the Yankees choose the early start to their first-round playoff series, taking the field Wednesday evening to take on the AL Central champion, then the Sox will be slated for a Game 1 in their series on Thursday and a Game 4 on Monday. That means no Lester in the fourth game, unless he's willing to take just three days of rest — enter Dice-K.
You never saw it coming a month ago. But Matsuzaka is back, and he's never missed a postseason since coming to the States three years ago. He's not about to start now.
It'll take four guys to pitch the Red Sox into late October. Lester is ready to dominate, but the arms race doesn't end there. Not by a long shot. If Beckett, Buchholz and Matsuzaka are ready to go, then the Angels will have their hands full.
If, if, if.
