But despite all the concocted ideas (Jonathan Papelbon for Joe Mauer!), the simplest answer may be that the solution could very well lie within the current Red Sox roster.
Obviously, saying so just isn't very fun, but consider this: Josh Beckett and Jon Lester led the team with 32 starts each. Do you know who made the third-most starts?
Brad Penny. With 24 appearances, Brad Penny was third on the team in starts. Brad Penny.
The rest of the list broke down as follows: Tim Wakefield (21), Clay Buchholz (16), Daisuke Matsuzaka (12), John Smoltz (eight), Justin Masterson (six), Paul Byrd (six), Junichi Tazawa (four) and Michael Bowden (one).
Yet even with an extraordinarily unreliable rotation, this team managed to win 95 games. With Wakefield hardly being a factor after the All-Star break, imagine what this team could have accomplished with a No. 3 and No. 4 starter.
Thanks to the ancient rituals known as "mathematics" and "logic," we can.
Let's start with Buchholz. He made 16 starts, so his numbers can essentially be doubled to get an idea of what he can do for a full season. If he maintains his 2009 pace next year, his numbers will look something like this:
184 IP, 86 ER, 4.21 ERA, 182 H, 62 BB and a 1.33 WHIP to go with a 14-8 record.
It's reasonable to assume Buchholz, with the added experience of pitching well in the playoffs under his belt, will even be a touch better than those numbers. He ended the season on a 4-1 run, posting a 3.98 ERA in his final seven starts. If he can maintain an ERA hovering around 4.00 for an entire season, he will win plenty of games for a team that scored 5.38 runs per game last year.
In Daisuke's case, it's fair to throw out his numbers from the beginning of the season. He joined the Red Sox after throwing 14 2/3 pressure-packed innings in the World Baseball Classic and clearly was in no shape to perform in the majors, as evidenced by his 8.23 ERA before he was sent to Florida to work out his issues all summer.
Once he returned though, he was nearly spectacular, going 3-1 with a 2.22 ERA in his four starts down the stretch. His control still left something to be desired, registering 12 walks compared with 20 strikeouts, but he finally looked like the 18-3 Matsuzaka from 2008.
Just as it was safe to assume Buchholz might outperform his 2009 numbers, it's likely Daisuke might come a bit closer to Earth next year. A safe estimation would be:
194.2 IP, 64 ER, 2.96 ERA, 180 H, 96 BB and a 1.41 WHIP with a record somewhere around 18-8.
The ERA might be a bit optimistic, but Daisuke looked good in September, keeping a sub-3 ERA in the realm of possibility. The same goes for the 18 wins, but he's never had a problem adding to the "W" category since joining the Red Sox.
Provided Buchholz and Daisuke can actually achieve those numbers, next year's Red Sox (with Jason Bay or a comparable hitter in the middle of the lineup) will have no choice but to be better than the 2009 version. Consider that Smoltz and Penny combined to go 9-13 with a 6.25 ERA in 171 2/3 innings. Looking at those numbers, it's almost infathomable that the Red Sox won as many games as they did.
Still to be determined is the No. 5 starter. If surgery goes well, Tim Wakefield will be back. He probably won't go 11-3 before the All-Star break, but if he can average six innings for about 25 starts, that's more than enough contribution from a fifth starter.
The Red Sox won the World Series in 2007, when their fifth starter was Julian Tavarez (6-11, 5.22 ERA as a starter). In 2004, Bronson Arroyo went 9-8 with a 4.00 ERA in 29 starts. If Wakefield can be somewhere in between, the Red Sox will be fine.
Of course, as with anything in sports, none of this will matter if they don't maintain their health. For Daisuke, Theo Epstein doesn't think that will be a problem again.
"There are strong expectations that he shows up in February in fantastic shape on Day 1 of spring training next year," Epstein said on Monday. "I see it as a necessity, not really an option."
If Wakefield doesn't hold up for the full year, the Red Sox could either look to youngsters Tazawa and Bowden as capable fill-ins or shop the market for a decent starter.
The final story won't be told until 12 months from now, when the Red Sox are either preparing for Game 1 of the ALCS or they're once again on the golf courses of Florida and Arizona. For now, at least, the former seems like a reachable goal.
