Such common sense might be the biggest obstacle standing between Red Sox general manager Theo Epstein and a bold, potentially career-defining trade for Blue Jays ace Roy Halladay.
If Theo pulls the trigger on a deal for Halladay now, his legacy could be defined decades from now by the winter of 2009. The repercussions would be out of this world — the GM could be remembered for the string of World Series titles he brought to Boston by putting Halladay at the top of a rotation already led by Josh Beckett and Jon Lester. He could also be remembered for the future Hall of Famers (think Clay Buchholz, Daniel Bard, Casey Kelly) he sent packing far too early.
Of course, this is all wildly hypothetical, but the point is that enormous, high-stakes gambles — like the one the Red Sox have a chance to take in regard to Halladay — are risky propositions that might not be worth the trouble for 95-win teams.
The Red Sox can come back in 2010 with virtually the same team they fielded in ’09. Provided that they can re-sign Jason Bay and that their pitching staff remains healthy, the Red Sox will be poised to win 95 more and return to the American League playoffs, ready to do some damage.
The Red Sox are a playoff team waiting to happen. So why mess with a good thing?
Perhaps that’s what the franchise is starting to figure out. The rotation — headlined by Beckett and Lester while also packing Buchholz, Daisuke Matsuzaka and Tim Wakefield — is a well-oiled machine. With these five guys already in the fold, there is no desperation in the Red Sox’ offseason plans and there’s certainly no need to mortgage the future.
But that’s not to say that the Red Sox are standing pat this winter. As we learned this past season, no one can survive on five starters alone. Epstein will need to find at least one more quality arm capable of holding down a spot in the rotation next season — John Lackey is the prime candidate, while Rich Harden, Ben Sheets and Erik Bedard would all make excellent backup plans.
The difference is that all of those pitchers are free agents. They require nothing but a little negotiating and a few million bucks. They won’t cost the Red Sox their future.
Buchholz, Bard and Kelly appear to be the future of this franchise. A decade from now, we could still see them in Fenway Park, pitching the Red Sox into the playoffs. If the Red Sox are going to give up on that dream, they better be certain that it’s worth the risk. It appears that right now, they’re not so sure.
ESPNBoston.com reported this weekend that “the Red Sox may just be hiding their hand, but it’s starting to sound like they have considerable qualms about the kind of money and players it will take to land Halladay. Keep an eye on the Angels; they have the pieces to make it work.”
To a fan with elaborate fantasies of Cy Young plaques and a superstar-laden playoff rotation, that might sound like bad news. To a realist? Just about right.
Roy Halladay can’t stay in Toronto forever. Eventually, he’s going to make another fan base in another city very, very happy. But don’t expect Boston to be that city anytime soon. The Red Sox rotation isn’t broken, and Theo Epstein has no reason to fix it.