It's now hours away. Before we know it, the game's biggest stars will be changing teams before our very eyes. LeBron James, Dwyane Wade, Chris Bosh and the rest of the gang will all have blockbuster deals, and we'll have a very entertaining month of wheeling and dealing to watch.
So how will it all go down, and where will everyone end up? It's hard to say for sure, but here are some guidelines to help you through your month of star-gazing:
It all starts with LeBron.
Literally everything. Before LeBron decides on a final destination, no one can move a muscle. Take Bosh, for example. If he wants to be LeBron's sidekick, he's got to wait for word on where that will be. Or Wade — is he teaming up with LeBron and Bosh, or is he staying in Miami and fending for himself? How about Joe Johnson, Amare Stoudemire and Carlos Boozer? They're likely going to be the Plan B candidates for the teams that fall short of the megastars. Until LeBron makes up his mind, we have no idea who that will be.
If LeBron wakes up Thursday morning and instantly announces where he's going, the rest of the process will run smoothly. But if he drags out the drama, as he is wont to do, the course of this July will be altered dramatically.
Players will inevitably get overpaid.
If you've so much as taken a high school economics class, you understand the laws of supply and demand. So here's the deal: There are too many teams looking for max free agents and not enough players that deserve max contracts. The Bulls and Knicks have two max spots open; the Heat have two but could potentially add three megastars if they can unload Michael Beasley. Meanwhile, New Jersey, Sacramento, Washington, Minnesota and the L.A. Clippers are looking at one max each. That's a total of 12 max guys. How many are there, actually? Three or four? Maybe five?
Plenty of teams are going to lose, and their backup plan will be spending way too much money on a player who doesn't deserve it. This is excellent news for the Rudy Gay's of the world.
"Opting out" isn't always what it sounds like.
Between Dirk Nowitzki, Stoudemire and now Paul Pierce, there are plenty of guys opting to exercise the "early termination option" clauses in their contracts. But bear in mind — just because a player "opts out" doesn't necessarily mean he's leaving town. In fact, it rarely does. Does anyone believe that Dirk is leaving Dallas, or that Pierce will leave behind a Celtic team that he's captained for the last decade? Extremely unlikely.
More likely, they're just using this chance to get out of their current contracts and negotiate new ones. With the new CBA on the horizon and the uncertainty of the future, this is the right time to do so.
Know your Bird rights.
It's a phrase you'll hear bandied about a lot this month — Bird rights, Bird rights, Bird rights. The Larry Bird exception to the salary cap is a rule the NBA has in place in order to keep players with their current teams for as long as possible, like Bird in Boston back in the Celtics' glory days. Simply put, it means that players with three-plus years of experience with their current teams can be resigned without fear of putting their teams over the salary cap, and it also means the players can be given raises of up to 10.5 percent if they stay put.
This means that if a LeBron, a Bosh or an Amare wants to leave his old team, he might also have to leave some money on the table.
Unless …
Watch for the sign-and-trade.
Because of the aforementioned Bird exception, the sign-and-trade method is a way to circumvent the cap rules and still give a player max money to switch teams. If LeBron wants to make the most money he possibly can, he can re-sign with the Cavaliers but ask them to deal him elsewhere in a sign-and-trade move. Suddenly, max cap room is no longer an object — any of the NBA's 30 teams are a possible destination.
The sign-and-trade is a win-win move, actually — the player wins because he nets more cash, and the team giving up the player wins by getting something back. The only loser is the team making the acquisition, and when that acquisition is a superstar like LeBron, you can hardly consider it a loss.
Last but not least …
Don't believe everything you hear.
This is a big one. Especially with the LeBron sweepstakes, which is possibly the most publicized off-the-court story basketball's seen since referees fixed games, you're going to see a lot of garbage out there. Everyone's got a scoop, and a lot of people, even respected basketball journalists, are going to be wrong. No matter the source, always be a skeptic. Every basketball figure on Earth will consider taking a few risks to speculate about LeBron's next home. The words "done deal" don't mean what they used to — until you see the guy at a press conference holding up a jersey, nothing is done.
It's going to be a fun month. Enjoy it, but with a grain of salt.
