While on its surface, the NL West race may not have much to do with the Red Sox, its outcome could have a major impact on the future plans of the Padres. More specifically, it could alter the career of Adrian Gonzalez.
The first baseman leads the Padres in average (.299), homers (30), RBIs (98), on-base percentage (.380), hits (172), runs (85), doubles (32), walks (87) and OPS (.901). Quite clearly, he's fairly talented.
Just as clearly, the Padres won't be dying to get rid of him, with his 2011 club option coming at an insanely low $5.5 million. While there's just about zero chance the Padres will be able to pay him beyond 2011, management would be crazy to trade away the best player from a playoff team.
Yet with just a few days left in the season, the Padres are teetering. They're two games behind the Giants in the NL West, and they're 1 1/2 games behind the Braves for the wild card. They're in that situation largely due to the 10-game skid from late August into early September that saw their lead in the West go from 6 1/2 games to just one game.
They've now lost three in a row and will close out the season in what could be a very interesting weekend series with the Giants. And if the Padres end up getting eliminated from the playoffs, you have to think that will change their approach with Gonzalez this winter.
From a Red Sox perspective, that's a good thing, assuming that Adrian Beltre chases the big dollars that he earned this season in Boston. With Kevin Youkilis' willingness to play at either corner of the infield, Theo Epstein will be free to target free agents at first and third base. There's no question that if Gonzalez is available, the Sox' GM will do what he can to bring him to Boston.
It helps (again, you'd think) that he would be dealing with Jed Hoyer, who learned the business from Epstein in the Boston organization. That obviously doesn't mean Hoyer, now the GM of the Padres, is in any way focused on helping the Red Sox succeed. It does, however, always help to have a mutually respective relationship to begin any discussion.
While it may be hard for fans in thriving baseball markets like Boston, New York or Chicago to understand why a team would be willing to part with its best player a year early, the attendance numbers are a good place to start. The Padres, despite leading the NL West for much of the season, have averaged just 26,250 fans per game at Petco Park — which is just 61.8 percent of the capacity. If they're not getting fans to the stadium when winning with Adrian Gonzalez, when will they get fans to the stadium?
It's hard to afford top-flight players with that kind of fan base, and if the Padres could pick up several low-cost, high-ceiling prospects in return for Gonzalez, it would have to be something they'd consider strongly.
If the Padres were to finish on the outside looking in on the postseason, they might be that much more eager to start from scratch. Ridding themselves of memories of the late-season collapse and moving on with a young nucleus may be the best course of action after such a disappointing end.
As with any speculation, there are too many variables to try to predict the future. Plus, if the Padres are asking for too much, Epstein has shown a reluctance to budge on handing over too many of his best and brightest prospects. It's hard to deny, though, that a second-place finish in both the NL West and NL wild card would have a significant impact on how the Padres handle their best player's future.
Epstein and the Red Sox, no longer in control of their postseason fate, will be watching.
