The Yankees haven't set it in stone yet, but after Brian Cashman warned fans on Monday that the Yankees would be going with a four-man rotation in the ALCS, the righty was all but named the Game 4 starter.
Burnett was about as unreliable as you can get — especially for a guy making his kind of money — all season for the Yanks. On the heels of that, Burnett's shaky 2009 postseason and the relative success the Yankees have had employing a three-man rotation in the playoffs, the Bombers went with a trio of starters in the ALDS rather than the quartet they'll go with now.
Maybe.
Does anyone really expect the Yankees to give the ball to Burnett for a Game 4 start if the Yankees find themselves in any sort of trouble in the ALCS? He would be making his first start since Oct. 2, a layoff that would amount to 18 days off. He'll throw five innings in a simulated start on Wednesday, but that's obviously not the same.
Instead of going with Burnett, the Yankees almost have to turn to workhorse CC Sabathia on three days' rest. It would be a no-brainer to go with Sabathia if they Yanks find themselves down 3-0, and it's something they would have to seriously consider if they were down 2-1 in the series.Throw in Sabathia's success when going on short rest (just four earned runs in 14 2/3 innings in 2009 postseason), and it's a pretty good backup plan.
The good news for Yankees fans, and presumably Burnett's family who, at this rate, may be the only Yankees fans who want to see him pitch, is it's a long shot the Yankees will be trailing.
For starters, they're playing great baseball. More importantly, the deck is already stacked in their favor. The Yankees wrapped up their sweep of the Twins on Oct. 9 and the ALCS doesn't start until Oct. 15. They will have gotten to put their feet up for almost a week while the Rays and Rangers battle it out in a five-game series to earn the opportunity to tackle the defending champs.
Making life easier for the Yankees is, of course, the Game 5 pitching matchup. David Price and Cliff Lee will take the mound for the Rays and Rangers, meaning that they'll likely be out of commission until Game 3 of the ALCS, Game 2 if one of the lefty aces gets brought back on short rest to start on Saturday night.
If A.J. Burnett does take the mound in the ALCS for the Yankees, it probably means the Bombers are in a pretty good position to take the series. Plus, there's a reason a Burnett makes the money he does. He has the potential to be unhittable. The Yankees are rolling the dice with him, and who knows, maybe it will work out.
If he doesn't take the mound, that likely means CC Sabathia will. And while that's a pretty decent Plan B, don't expect it to get to that.
