As Lee Corso would say while shaking a pencil in the face of Kirk Herbstreit, "Not so fast."
Despite the departures of Carl Crawford, Carlos Pena, Jason Bartlett, Joaquin Benoit, Dan Wheeler and likely closer Rafael Soriano, the Rays may have enough to stick around in 2011. If and when injuries ransack another team (sound familiar?), Tampa Bay could be ready to pounce.
The Rays will enter the season with one of the deepest and best starting rotations in all of baseball. From David Price, the runner-up for Cy Young, to Wade Davis, who won 12 games in his first full season, they go five deep and figure to have a better back end if Davis takes that next step and Jeff Niemann is able to avoid injury. Niemann was 10-3 with a 3.12 ERA in early August before back issues slowed him down a bit.
Matt Garza fully hit his prime with a 15-win campaign last year. James Shields is coming off a down year (13-15, 5.18 ERA) but his BABIP was through the roof, suggesting some misfortune on his part. Plus, he's still just 29 and has shown he can pitch in the AL East. Top pitching prospect Jeremy Hellickson is waiting in the wings should anyone need a replacement.
What is cause for concern is the bullpen. If and when Soriano departs, manager Joe Maddon may have to rely on the relatively untested Joel Peralta or J.P. Howell, who missed all of the 2010 season, to close out games. Grant Balfour may follow (or lead) Soriano out the door, robbing Maddon of another hard thrower in a pen that has already lost Benoit and Wheeler.
For Maddon, it all boils down to how things come together in the relief corps.
"Our starting pitching is still among the best in the American League," Maddon recently said. "So you take that and combine that with a really strong defense. We apparently are going to have some holes with the void of Carlos, et cetera. But I believe if somehow we're doing a lot of diligent work regarding our bullpen, if we can get some kind of a bullpen back together, that would make all the difference in the world. That would put us back in the 90-win area, I believe. It certainly comes down to the bullpen."
Maddon speaks from experience. The 2008 team that rocketed from last to first had a very good bullpen. The 2009 unit that fell to third place did not, and when Soriano and Benoit came aboard in 2010, the club found success once more. Brian Fuentes has been linked to the Rays for several days now. As shaky as he can be from time to time, he would represent a quality veteran to help solidify the unit.
Without Crawford batting third and Pena fifth, or thereabouts, one might feel that the offense will suffer. However, the Rays are hopeful that new shortstop Reid Brignac, a top prospect, will provide much more than Bartlett's meager 2010 production. Similarly, Sean Rodriguez is a breakout candidate at second base.
Lest we forget that third baseman Evan Longoria is still in the mix, a potent force in the cleanup spot. The ultra-talented B.J. Upton has been frustrating some with his lack of progress, but he quietly made some strides last year (59-point increase in OPS from 2009; 10 of his 18 homers in final two months). Crawford is being replaced by top prospect Desmond Jennings, a guy who might be better than Crawford was at this stage of his career. A bounce-back year by Ben Zobrist, one of the top players in all of baseball in 2009, could make the lineup more than capable.
The final factor in turning a less-talented Tampa Bay bunch into contenders is Maddon's insistence on squeezing all he can from the hand he is dealt. The Rays have led the league in stolen bases for three straight years and should still challenge for that crown, even without Crawford. If they do not, you can expect no team to take more extra bases and show more hustle than Maddon's bunch.
In the midst of a four-game sweep of the Red Sox in Fenway Park last April, Maddon had plenty with which to be pleased. He chose to focus on a few plays the Rays made with their legs as the key to keeping the Sox off balance.
"That's part of our game," Maddon said at the time. "In regards to taking chances or taking risks, we're always going to be that group, but we're gonna try to do it when the odds are in our favor, not just for the sake of doing it. … I know a lot of teams aren't able to do what we do, but we put a lot of time into it."
Indeed, a lot of teams cannot accomplish what Maddon gets the Rays to accomplish on the base paths, a lot of teams cannot boast of a starting rotation quite like Tampa Bay's and a lot of teams do not have a farm system as loaded as the one that has brought up Davis, Niemann, Brignac, Rodriguez and Jennings, guys who may enable the club to not miss a beat.
The focus in New England is on the Red Sox' offseason additions and the Yankees' lack thereof. It would be wise not to sleep on Tampa Bay, which still has enough to compete. Whether it is in the mix at the end of September will depend on the bullpen.
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