Then, for the next 10 weeks or so, you know what you’re working with, and ideally you know everything there is to know about the teams.
Then comes Week 17, which is a season unto itself.
That is the case because you simply don’t know what you’ll be getting from any team. Some teams have secured all there is to secure, while others will be fighting for their lives. Some will rest the starters, while others will play all-out for 60 minutes for seemingly no reason (see: Tom Coughlin, Giants, 2007).
So what can we do? Well, we can take all of our knowledge from the first two parts of the year, throw it out the window and then make an educated guess. Oh, and we can pick against the Panthers.
(Home team in caps.)
KANSAS CITY (-3.5) over Oakland
Banking on a party at Arrowhead here. Unless the Raiders are really inspired to screw with the Patriots’ first-round draft pick.
NEW ENGLAND (-3.5) over Miami
Last year, the Patriots had nothing to gain in Week 17, and they got whooped by the Texans. This year is the opposite of last year.
HOUSTON (+2) over Jacksonville
Betting against Trent Edwards is as easy as it gets. End of story.
CLEVELAND (+6) over Pittsburgh
The Steelers lost 13-6 last year in Cleveland. The Browns are the liveliest 5-10 team I can remember. That’s enough for me to take the six.
BALTIMORE (-9.5) over Cincinnati
Something you should not do: Allow two weeks of work make you forget how terrible the Bengals are.
Ridiculous Quote From Last Week’s Picks: “I believe the Bengals have no life.”
Note: How silly of me. All it took was The T.Ocho Show not playing, and Carson Palmer looked like a new man.
DETROIT (-3) over Minnesota
Joe Webb looked pretty awesome, but Ndamukong Suh might pull his patented rip-your-head-off move that he practiced on Jake Delhomme on him. Just because he can.
Plus, the Vikings are 6-9 and are on the shortest of short weeks since the ’40s.
New York Giants (-4) over WASHINGTON
So much of me wants to pick against the Giants. So much of me sees a wretched collapse that leaves the city feeling sick for a week. But something tells me I’m wrong. The only answer is to rely on some numbers.
The Redskins have allowed 5,903 yards this season. That’s the worst in the NFL. The Giants rank sixth.
The Giants score 25.1 points per game to Washington’s 19.2, and the Giants completely decimated the Skins a few weeks ago.
Add in that last time the Giants were in Washington, Jim Zorn was calling the worst fake field goal of all time (twice!), and add in that Rex Grossman plays quarterback for Washington, and begrudgingly, I take the Giants. I still have a funny feeling about it, though.
GREEN BAY (-10) over Chicago
In the last seven Packers game started by Aaron Rodgers, they’ve outscored opponents 184-70. This one’s for a playoff spot, so I’d stick with him … provided he’s not too busy making sales pitches for WUPHF on the sideline.
RQFLWP: “Just know that I have zero confidence in Jay Cutler.”
Note: This quote was both ridiculously accurate and ridiculously wrong at the same time.
Tennessee (+10) over INDIANAPOLIS
Randy Moss (remember him?) will emerge from obscurity to score two touchdowns and sucker some team into signing him to a two-year contract. Or he’ll go without a catch for the fifth straight week. It’s one or the other, but I don’t think it’s the Colts’ year.
Dallas (+6.5) over PHILADELPHIA
The final line is dependent on a certain game-changing quarterback’s status, of course, but the Eagles look like they’re just biding their time until the playoffs.
Random question: Has anyone ever led the league in interceptions yet so convincingly looked like a terrible cornerback like Asante Samuel has? When he’s not getting burned, he’s committing pass interference, but when he’s not doing those two things, he’s picking the ball off. Bizarre.
NEW YORK JETS (-1) over Buffalo
Is Mark Brunell really that much worse than Mark Sanchez? Think about it.
Carolina (+15) over ATLANTA
It’s just hard to take a team to win by more than two touchdowns when they’re not playing for much. I’ll admit that changes when the Panthers are involved, but still. The Falcons didn’t even score 15 points last week.
Wait a second. Did I just pick the Panthers?
Tampa Bay (+8) over NEW ORLEANS
That game-winning drive Monday night was awesome, but I watch the Saints this year, and I just don’t see it.
RQFLWP: “That has to be one demoralized locker room down there in Tampa. And now they have to compete with master motivator Pete Carroll? Tough draw.”
Note: Unmotivated teams don’t usually win 38-15. Whatever.
SAN FRANCISCO (-6.5) over Arizona
This is the least significant game in the world. I’d rather watch two people play Operation for three hours. And believe me — I hate Operation.
DENVER (+4.5) over San Diego
That Tim Tebow kid is just so darn nice!
St. Louis (-2.5) over SEATTLE
Charlie Whitehurst alert! Charlie Whitehurst alert!
This game getting flexed to 8 p.m. is karma, as far as I’m concerned, because I’ve been complaining about the NFC West all season long. Good to know the commissioner is reading my picks.
See you all in the playoffs.
Last week: 8-8
Season: 123-112-5
