The baseball season is less than half complete. Talking about who will win what is still an iffy proposition.
But in a sport where numbers surround our daily mental meanderings, there are few more enjoyable tasks than breaking down the stats. In the case of Adrian Gonzalez, that breakdown is rather easy.
As we approach the halfway mark of the season, Gonzalez is at least causing some to wonder if a Triple Crown run is possible. The feat, last accomplished by Red Sox great Carl Yastrzemski in 1967, has been flirted with in this way several times since, but in many instances since Yaz’s run there has been a drop-off in one or two or all three of the necessary categories — batting average, home runs and RBIs.
What makes Gonzalez an intriguing candidate is two-fold. In the two categories he leads in the American League, he has a sizable lead. Entering Sunday, his average was 23 points higher than second-place Victor Martinez and his RBI lead over Paul Konerko was 12, 71 to 59.
That leaves home runs, in which Gonzalez ranks eighth with 16. Passing many other notable names and then reigning home run champ Jose Bautista, comfortably ahead with 23, will not be easy. However, Gonzalez is noted as a home run binger. He will go long stretches without one, and then pile them up at an awesome pace.
Consider the ups and downs in that category for Gonzalez this year. He opened with just one in his first 28 games with the Red Sox before hammering eight in 11 games, including five in four games at one point.
The slugger then went 14 straight without going deep. He has hit six this month, four of them coming in two pairs of back-to-back games.
This is nothing new to Gonzalez.
In 2010, he had separate streaks of four home runs in four games, four in five games, four in seven games and five in eight games. The year before, when Gonzalez hit a career-high 40 homers, he once hit six in a five-game stretch and also had other stretches of four in four games, three in three games, four in six games, six in eight games and eight in 14.
In 2008, there was a stretch in which Gonzalez clubbed five home runs in six games, another in which he hit four in five and 11 sets of back-to-back games which featured long balls.
Amid his binge in May, Gonzalez was asked by reporters who had not seen every game he played in San Diego whether he had experienced power surges like that one.
“Yeah,” Gonzalez said in a very confident tone. “A few times every year.”
By that math, there are two such stretches forthcoming. If one occurs soon, Gonzalez could approach the final two months of the season with the three-category prize in his sights. Perhaps then the Triple Crown talk would not be far-fetched, if it even is now.
Gonzalez also has history on his side if he needs to make up ground in one or more categories. Rarely do players lead in all three categories from start to finish. They need bumps in one or more at some point in time.
In ’67, Yastrzemski was fourth in RBIs, third in home runs and second in average on this date. The year before, when Frank Robinson won the Triple Crown with Baltimore, he was 19 RBIs behind the leader on June 26.
When Ted Williams won it in 1947, he entered this day a remarkable 55 points behind the AL leader in hitting, but rallied to claim all three categories. In doing the trick in 1941, he was second in home runs and trailed the RBI leader by seven on this date.
Gonzalez went deep Saturday night in Pittsburgh. If it is the precursor to one of his trademark power explosions, the Triple Crown talk could soon increase.