While many may see the absence of Lackey from the 2012 rotation as a case of addition by subtraction, there is this one pressing issue facing Ben Cherington and the Red Sox: They don't have a starting rotation.
Cherington, the newly appointed general manager, said Tuesday that he expects a lot from Josh Beckett, Jon Lester and Clay Buchholz, but Cherington and everyone else knows that he can't take that belief to the bank. Beckett is coming off a positive season, but he has pitched 200 innings just once in the last four years. There's also no guarantee that Buchholz will be able to completely shake the back issues that kept him off the field from mid-June to the end of the season. There's plenty of reason for optimism, but there must be an equal amount of skepticism when it comes to back injuries, which don't always disappear.
That's where Alfredo Aceves comes in.
The Red Sox got the right-hander at an absolute bargain last year at $650,00, after the Yankees opted to not offer him a contract. They won't be nearly as lucky this winter, not after Aceves went 10-2 with a 2.61 ERA while serving at times as a starter, long reliever, set-up man and closer. He proved capable and valuable at all four.
It got to the point in September where he simply became too good to only be a reliever. With Kyle Weiland, Andrew Miller, Tim Wakefield and Erik Bedard making starts in what turned out to be a crucial final month, it simply made no sense to leave Aceves bottled up in the bullpen. The problem for Terry Francona was that there was nobody to take Aceves' place. The Red Sox didn't have enough arms, and it cost them. Big time.
Cherington made it clear at his introductory news conference that adding pitchers will be priority No. 1 this offseason.
"We need to build some pitching depth," Cherington said. "We have talent in the bullpen. Obviously, not knowing the outcome of [Jonathan] Papelbon's decision, we potentially have an opening at closer. We have a couple of players in house who we feel are capable of filling that role if needed. But we need to add some pitching depth. Most likely, we'll do that through some good, creative, perhaps buy-low acquisitions.
"I think we need to hit on some pitchers this offseason, much the way we did with Alfredo Aceves last season."
If the goal is to make a similar move to last year's signing of Aceves, then why not start this year with the same one?
Consider that the alternatives include Wakefield, who will turn 46 in August and and went 1-5 with a 5.08 ERA from July 29 to the end of the season. His only scoreless appearance in that stretch came in a relief role, when the Red Sox were already trailing 10-0.
There's also Miller, on whom the Red Sox have a club option. While the 6-foot-7 lefty still shows some promise, his 5.54 ERA didn't do much to erase the question marks that surrounded him when he signed with the team last year.
The free-agent market offers some arms that could help. Mark Buehrle, Roy Oswalt, C.J. Wilson and others all present enticing options, but none will come cheap. Aceves is arbitration-eligible and is certainly due for a hefty pay raise from last year, but because he only started four games last season, he can't command starter money at the negotiating table.
Giving Aceves the raise he clearly deserves while still securing him for a resonable price needs to be one of Cherington's top priorities. The second should be telling him that he's now a starter.
The Red Sox made a similar — though not quite identical — move back in 2007, and all they did that year was win the World Series. Papelbon was supposed to be a starter, but during camp, he was moved back to the closer's role. With a gaping hole in the rotation, Francona and Theo Epstein opted to give Julian Taverez the chance to start some games. Tavarez had started just six games the year before and hadn't been a full-time starter since 2003, but the Red Sox had limited options.
What Boston got from Tavarez was serviceable, but the righty did the job. His 6-11 record was ugly, as was his 5.22 ERA, but he ate up innings and worked with some effectiveness. Once Lester was able to make his '07 debut in July, Tavarez went back to the bullpen having done his job. It wasn't ideal, but the Red Sox made it work.
With Aceves, they have a better situation than they did with Tavarez. Say what you will about the value of wins, but Aceves is 24-3 in his career. That doesn't all happen by accident or through fortunate circumstances. He works fast, he throws hard, and he can eat innings, as he averaged 5 1/3 innings in his four starts last year. That may not sound spectacular, but in September, Weiland averaged 4, Wakefield averaged 5, and Bedard averaged 4. Even Lester averaged just 5 1/3, while Beckett averaged just 5 2/3.
Of course, Daisuke Matsuzaka could be ready to start the season, but even if he is, the Red Sox know they'll need backup plans. The farm system just doesn't have enough guys who are ready, and the Sox almost have to hand Aceves, one of the most valuable and versatile players for the 2011 Red Sox, in a starting role. They ought to lock him up for a few years while they're at it.
