It remains unclear how quickly Harden will recover from the concussion he sustained Sunday when Lakers forward Metta World Peace gave him a celebratory, intentional (no matter what World Peace claims) elbow to the back of the head. Harden's condition is day to day, and the league has yet to rule on disciplinary measures for World Peace.
The league is expected to weigh World Peace's actions in the context of his history, when as Ron Artest, he incited numerous senseless incidents — the brawl in Detroit in 2004 the most notable among those. Whatever decision is made, the league must also take into account that World Peace's actions might also have cost the Thunder a championship. Harden is that important to the Thunder, and an extended absence would downgrade Oklahoma City from a viable championship contender to just another above-average team in a stacked Western Conference.
To most fans, Harden is a nice, complementary player to Kevin Durant and Russell Westbrook. He is the presumptive Sixth Man of the Year this season and drew praise during last year's playoffs, when the basketball public at large became aware of the versatile swingman from the small-market Thunder. He is third on the team in scoring, averaging a full 10 points per game less than Durant, and unlike forward Serge Ibaka with his shot-blocking prowess, Harden does not possess a singular skill that shows up in box scores.
But Harden is pivotal to what the Thunder do, and previous cases of other players with concussions do not bode well for a quick comeback.
Minnesota's Kevin Love suffered a concussion April 11 and was shut down for the final two-plus weeks of the season. Boston's Mickael Pietrus missed more than two weeks after sustaining a concussion, and throughout that time, the Celtics marveled at how well Pietrus responded after the first few scary days. If Harden's scenario is similarly "good," he might not return until the end of the first round or possibly the beginning of the second round.
The constant gripe with the Thunder is that Westbrook, the NBA's fifth-leading scorer at 23.7 points per game, is not a pure point guard in the pass-first sense. Westbrook tried to fit into that role the last two seasons and averaged 8.0 assists or more in both campaigns, but this season he has gone into full-on scorer mode and his assists have dropped to 5.4 per game.
That has not been a problem, though, largely because Durant has played at an MVP level, and also because Harden takes the distributing duties off Westbrook's hands at the most meaningful times. Harden does not start for Oklahoma City, but he always finishes, and his presence helped the Thunder hold onto the top spot in the West for much of the season.
The Thunder are a strong offensive team overall with an offensive rating of 106.9, which measures their points scored per 100 possessions. With specifically Durant and Westbrook playing together, the team is slightly better, as one would expect. When Durant and Westbrook are both on the court, Oklahoma City's offensive rating gets a boost to 107.8.
Here is the thing that might not be so obvious: With Harden on the court, the Thunder, Durant and Westbrook are all better.
The Thunder score more than 112 points per 100 possessions with Harden on the court, but plummet to 98.0 when he is off it. That's Washington Wizards territory. Not even Durant or Westbrook have that big an impact on the Thunder's production.
Moreover, when paired with one or both of those two stars, Harden makes the team even better. The Thunder score 113.8 points per 100 possessions when Harden is on the floor with Westbrook and 113.6 when Harden is on the court with Durant.
Harden does not seem like such a disposable role player now, does he?
The league must keep this in mind as it decides on a punishment for World Peace. The Lakers are a longshot to win the title this season, but any suspension for World Peace must hamstring the Lakers' title hopes in a manner that approaches how Harden's absence could affect the Thunder. World Peace could never be as important to L.A. as Harden is to Oklahoma City, but the league has to at least try to find a punishment comparable to the crime.
For more than 12 years, World Peace/Artest has hid behind a tough-guy image to bolster his reputation as a defensive stopper, as though one personality needed the other. Meanwhile, players like Shane Battier and Shawn Marion have become noted defensive players while gaining respect for their intellect, not drawing fear for their antics. Celtics guard Avery Bradley has not exhibited a hint of dirty play while emerging as possibly the best perimeter defender in the league.
It is not necessary to be an Oklahoma City fan to hope that Harden's injury does not impede the Thunder's potential path to the Finals. The signs point to that being highly probable, though, and if that turns out to be the case, it will have been World Peace's greatest offense of all.
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