The AFC South is entering just its 14th season of existence, but one thing is abundantly clear: As always, it’s the Indianapolis Colts’ division to lose. In the division’s previous 13 seasons, the Colts have finished as champions nine times. Don’t expect much to change in 2015.
The Colts could be challenged by the Houston Texans, who, because of floundering quarterback play, have failed to meet expectations in the past few seasons. The Tennessee Titans and Jacksonville Jaguars each should improve on their two- and three-win 2014 seasons, respectively, thanks to a few key additions, but they won’t be challengers to come out on top.
Let’s look at how we believe the AFC South will shake out, in predicted order of finish.
1. Indianapolis Colts
Andrew Luck has improved a little bit each year he has been in the league. Last season, he set career highs in completions (380), passing yards (4,761), passing touchdowns (40) and completion percentage (61.7 percent). But his interceptions jumped from nine in 2013 to 16, and he lost a career-high six fumbles.
Luck’s receiving targets also dropped 40 passes, more than any team in the NFL. Fortunately, veteran receiver Andre Johnson (2.7 drop percentage in 2014) and running back Frank Gore (one drop in 2014) should help alleviate those woes and elevate Indy to what could be the league’s best offense. The biggest problem is defense — especially stopping the run. Still, expect the Colts to win 12 or more games for the first time in the Luck era.
2. Houston Texans
Brian Hoyer is starting at QB for the Texans, and it tells you everything you need to know that he might be the best quarterback they’ve had in several years. That’s not to say Hoyer is anything special under center, but he’s a more-than-capable game manager who learned from New England Patriots quarterback Tom Brady.
The loss of Johnson to the Colts hurts, and running back Arian Foster’s groin injury likely will plague this offense even if he returns earlier than expected. But the Houston defense, led by behemoth defensive end J.J. Watt, was enough to win the Texans nine games last season. They added veteran Vince Wilfork from New England to bolster an already impressive front line. Don’t be surprised to see Houston improve and challenge Indy in coach Bill O’Brien’s second season at the helm.
3. Tennessee Titans
Marcus Mariota is receiving glowing reviews and could end up being a decent NFL quarterback. He should be an upgrade to the combination of Zach Mettenberger, Charlie Whitehurst and Jake Locker, who combined to complete just 58.3 percent of passes for 3,738, 20 touchdowns and 16 interceptions last season. But there are question marks at almost every other position. The Titans will be better, but not by much.
4. Jacksonville Jaguars
Julius Thomas, the Jags’ prized offseason acquisition, broke a finger during the preseason and likely will be sidelined for at least a month. But his old team, the Denver Broncos, let Thomas go because — aside from financial reasons — he can’t block and he’s not particularly good at running routes. Peyton Manning, a first-ballot future Hall of Famer, made Thomas great.
Quarterback Blake Bortles isn’t Manning, but he should improve in his second season, and rookie running back T.J. Yeldon could be a terrific backfield addition, but it still will be a very long season for Jags fans.
Thumbnail image via Kevin Jairaj/USA TODAY Sports Images
