Tom Brady Could Thrive In His 40s, ESPN Statistical Projections Show

One year ago this week, Tom Brady and the New England Patriots were labeled “done.”

After a 41-14 loss to the Kansas City Chiefs in which Brady threw two intercerptions and was benched in the fourth quarter, thoughts of another Brady-led championship (or the QB playing another season, let alone into his 40s) were just fodder for the “homers” in Boston to discuss around the water cooler.

The rest, of course, is history. But it seems ESPN — who led the “Brady is done” charge — has changed its tune.

According to data compiled by ESPN Stats and Info’s Ben Alamar, we should expect Brady to thrive under center for several more seasons.

In short, the model looks at every snap ever taken by quarterbacks aged 36 or older, levels the playing field and compares them. Doing so shows Brady is playing well above the level of an average 38-year-old quarterback (including throwing one more touchdown pass per game) and shouldn’t start looking like a 38-year-old at least until his 40-year-old season, which is two years from now.

In comparison, Tom Terrific is outperforming other Hall of Fame-caliber QBs’ performances during their 38-year-old seasons: Fran Tarkenton, Brett Favre and Kurt Warner, for example.

Despite this bright outlook, there is a bit of bad news for Patriots fans: Peyton Manning was the best 38-year-old quarterback of all time. The Denver Broncos signal-caller, of course, set several single-season passing records that fall, including most touchdown passes (55) and passing yards (5,477).

Then again, Brady’s season is just beginning. Stay tuned.