Week 1 of the college football season kicks off this weekend, and the nation’s best players will begin building their Heisman Trophy cases.
Finishing the season strong often makes a huge difference with Heisman voters — recency bias is a real thing. That said, a good start also is important, especially against ranked non-conference opponents in nationally televised games.
Here are our predictions for the 2016 Heisman Trophy finalists.
1. Deshaun Watson, QB, Clemson (Winner)
Watson was incredible last season in leading the Tigers within five points of a national title. He threw for 4,104 yards and 35 touchdowns with 13 interceptions. That’s amazing in its own right, but he also ran for 1,105 yards and 12 more TDs.
If Watson hits the 5,000-total-yard mark and approaches 50 total touchdowns again, it’s hard to imagine him leaving New York without the Heisman in his grasp.
2. Christian McCaffrey, RB, Stanford
McCaffrey is Stanford’s best player since Andrew Luck was starting at quarterback for the Cardinal in 2011.
McCaffrey ran for 2,019 yards last season — one of just two Football Bowl Subdivision running backs to reach that mark — but his eight rushing touchdowns were pretty underwhelming compared to Heisman winner Derrick Henry’s 28. To McCaffrey’s credit, he also tallied 45 receptions for 645 yards and five touchdowns.
McCaffrey has the speed, vision and physical strength to put up similar yardage totals and more touchdowns in 2016, and he only faces one Pac-12 defense (Washington) that ranked in the top 30 in points allowed per game last season.
3. Baker Mayfield, QB, Oklahoma
Big 12 defenses are a joke, and that was quite evident last season. Oklahoma’s high-powered offense scored 40 or more points eight times and 50-plus points six times last season, and is returning several starters, including its quarterback in Mayfield.
Mayfield needs to increase his passing yards from last season (3,700) to make a genuine Heisman case, but his accuracy and efficiency in the red zone (36 touchdowns, seven interceptions in 2015) should help him put up Heisman-worthy numbers.
4. Leonard Fournette, RB, LSU
Fournette was the Heisman favorite last season before Alabama’s defense limited him to just 31 yards on 19 carries in a Nov. 7 loss. He finished the campaign with 1,953 yards on 6.5 yards per carry and scored 22 touchdowns.
Those numbers were fantastic, but his last four games of the regular season, beginning with the Alabama loss, were nowhere close to as impressive as his first seven contests. Fournette ran for 150 or more yards in each of his first seven games, and that happened only once in his last four matchups.
Fournette must be more consistent and give a much-improved performance versus Alabama on Nov. 5 to be a top Heisman contender in 2016. Luckily for him, he has the talent and offensive line to make those things happen.
Thumbnail photo via Joshua S. Kelly/USA TODAY Sports Images
