Bruins Vs. Hurricanes Playoff Preview: Analysis, Predictions, X Factors

For the second straight series, the Boston Bruins will face a team that, frankly, nobody expected to be here.

The Bruins are set to appear in their first Eastern Conference Final since 2013, and they’ll take on the Carolina Hurricanes in the best-of-seven series.

Carolina, which snuck into the Stanley Cup playoffs as a wild card, beat the Washington Capitals in seven games before sweeping the New York Islanders in the second round. The Bruins, meanwhile, beat the Toronto Maple Leafs in seven games before knocking off the Columbus Blue Jackets in six.

Before the puck drops Thursday night at TD Garden, NESN.com’s Logan Mullen and Lauren Campbell broke down the upcoming series.

STATS HEAD-TO-HEAD (REGULAR SEASON)
Goals/Game: Boston 3.13 (11th) | Carolina 2.96 (16th)
Goals Allowed/Game: Boston 2.59 (3rd) | Carolina 2.70 (8th)
Power Play: Boston 25.9 percent (3rd) | Carolina 17.8 (20th)
Penalty Kill: Boston 79.9 (16th) | Carolina 81.6 (8th)

SEASON SERIES
— Boston won the season series 2-1
Oct. 30: Boston 3-2
Dec. 23: Carolina 5-3
March 5: Boston 4-3 (OT)

SCHEDULE
Thursday, May 9: Carolina at Boston, 8 p.m. ET
Sunday, May 12: Carolina at Boston, 3 p.m.
Tuesday, May 14: Boston at Carolina, 8 p.m.
Thursday, May 16: Boston at Carolina, 8 p.m.
Saturday, May 18: Carolina at Boston, 7:15 p.m. (if necessary)
Monday, May 20: Boston at Carolina, 8 p.m. (if necessary)
Wednesday, May 22: Carolina at Boston, 8 p.m. (if necessary)

FORWARDS
Bruins Projected Lines
Brad Marchand–Patrice Bergeron–David Pastrnak
Jake DeBrusk–David Krejci–David Backes
Marcus Johansson–Charlie Coyle–Danton Heinen
Joakim Nordstrom–Sean Kuraly–Chris Wagner

Hurricanes Projected Lines
Andrei Svechnikov–Sebastian Aho–Teuvo Teravainen
Nino Niederreiter–Jordan Staal–Justin Williams
Warren Foegele–Lukas Wallmark–Brock McGinn
Jordan Martinook–Greg McKegg–Micheal Ferland

Logan: While the Hurricanes might not have the name recognition of the Maple Leafs or Blue Jackets, they are loaded with skill.

The Bruins have the edge as far as top lines go now that Patrice Bergeron, Brad Marchand and David Pastrnak are back on track, but there’s a ton of young skill on Carolina’s top line: Sebastian Aho and Teuvo Teravainen are an absolute delight to watch play together. Nino Niederreiter has proven to be a nice addition to the Hurricanes, and that second line should be able to keep up with David Krejci, Jake DeBrusk and whoever the second-line right wing is for Boston.

As for the bottom six, it pretty much depends on which version of each line shows up. Boston’s fourth line has looked really, really good at times, but there also have been points this postseason where it’s looked lost. Same goes for the third line: Charlie Coyle has looked like Boston’s best forward on occasion, but he’s also disappeared at other times.

Also, keep an eye out for Andrei Svechnikov, because he’s going to be terrorizing the NHL for years.

Advantage: Bruins (but not by much)

Lauren: We’ve seen both the bottom six and top forwards have big games for the Bruins throughout the playoffs. The bottom six certainly came up big when Boston’s top line — particularly David Pastrnak — couldn’t find a groove, but it was Pastrnak with a pair of goals (including the game-winner) in Game 5 against the Blue Jackets.

If Boston’s top line carries the momentum over from the end of the Columbus series, and the bottom six continue to contribute, the ‘Canes will be faced with a tough, tough task.

It certainly won’t be a cakewalk for the B’s, though, as Carolina presents an offense that’s been a threat to some of the NHL’s best teams. The Hurricanes put up at least four goals on the Washington Capitals three times in their first-round series, and they potted five goals twice in their second-round series against the Islanders. They’re certainly not lacking.

Advantage: Bruins

DEFENSE
Bruins Projected Pairings
Zdeno Chara–Charlie McAvoy (suspended for Game 1)
Torey Krug–Brandon Carlo
Matt Grzelcyk–Connor Clifton

Hurricanes Projected Pairings
Jaccob Slavin–Dougie Hamilton
Brett Pesce–Justin Faulk
Haydn Fleury–Calvin de Haan

Logan: Charlie McAvoy getting suspended doesn’t exactly benefit the Bruins, but Game 1 probably will be the only contest where Boston is at a clear disadvantage along the blue line.

Though Zdeno Chara hasn’t been his best by any stretch, McAvoy has been tremendous. Brandon Carlo has thrived in his first postseason action, while Torey Krug continues to be an offensive threat. Matt Grzelcyk has proven great in both ends and is a tremendous puck mover who can clear his own zone well. The Bruins have a nice blend of experience and youth defensively, and the performance they’ve given this postseason should be encouraging for Bruce Cassidy and Co.

However, that’s not to minimize Carolina’s abilities. The Hurricanes’ defense is a fast group that’s sure to give the Bruins headaches in both ends. Jaccob Slavin has looked elite at times, while Justin Faulk has a demonstrated history of success. Bruins fans know just how good Dougie Hamilton can be and that he’s a bona fide top pairing defenseman. All told, this defensive group likely will be a thorn in the side of the other 30 teams for a little while, and the Bruins may feel the effects of that in this series.

Advantage: Bruins (again, narrowly)

Lauren: Losing Charlie McAvoy for Game 1 is a blow to Boston’s blue line, but with the “next man up” mentality this team has lived by for so much of the regular season, there’s no reason the Bruins won’t live by it now with a trip to the Stanley Cup Final just four wins away.

Brandon Carlo really has found his groove with Boston in his first postseason and even played a massive role in the Bruins’ game-winning goal in Game 5 against the Blue Jackets. The B’s have plenty of size between him and Zdeno Chara, but the Hurricanes’ defense is fast. Matt Grzelcyk has been playing at his best, while Torey Krug continues to be a strong presence for the Black and Gold with four assists in the series against Columbus.

It also should be noted that if the B’s get Kevan Miller (lower-body injury) back during this series, it’ll add some size and power to their defense.

The Hurricanes’ defense held the Capitals to 17 goals in the teams’ seven-game, first-round series. It held the Islanders to five in Carolina’s second-round sweep. So, suffice to say the unit has played a big role in Carolina’s run to the Eastern Conference Final.

Advantage: Bruins

GOALIES
Bruins Goaltenders
Tuukka Rask
Jaroslav Halak

Hurricanes Goaltenders
Petr Mrazek
Curtis McElhinney

Logan: Even the most staunch Tuukka Rask detractors must have a tough time picking against the Bruins netminder — that is, unless they’re completely void of any intelligence whatsoever.

Rask has been great throughout the postseason and is coming off a tremendous showing in the series against the Blue Jackets. In those six games, Rask had a .948 save percentage with a 1.71 goals against average, capped off with a 39-save shutout in the Bruins’ Game 6 clincher.

The Hurricanes certainly benefit from the total quality of their tandem — as evidenced by the fact they didn’t miss a beat when Curtis McElhinney had to take over when Petr Mrazek got hurt — but Rask simply has been too good this postseason to not side with.

Advantage: Bruins

Lauren: At this point, it would be foolish to go against Tuukka Rask. The B’s netminder has been a force all postseason. Not only has he given his team a chance to win each game. He’s been the reason they’ve won some. And if he keeps his numbers in the same region as they were against Columbus, then Carolina is in for a world of frustration.

The Hurricanes also have a strong presence between the pipes in both Petr Mrazek and Curtis McElhinney. We know McElhinney is ready to go at any moment.

Advantage: Bruins

X FACTOR
Logan: David Backes

After getting healthy scratched the first three games of the Columbus series, Backes went back into the lineup and found a home on the second line with David Krejci and Jake DeBrusk. He got a point in each game he played against the Blue Jackets, including a goal in the clincher. If he’s able to keep up a good pace and continue contributing on that second line, that’ll be a big (and much-needed) boost for the Bruins.

Lauren: Charlie Coyle

As Logan pointed out, Coyle has looked like the Bruins’ best forward at times, while also going ghost at times. The Weymouth, Mass., native netted the game-winning overtime goal in Game 1 against Columbus, and he has five postseason goals to go along with three assists. Coyle seems to pair well with Marcus Johansson on the third line, and he could be a key to the B’s forward depth making an impact should he not disappear on the ice.

PREDICTION
Logan: Bruins in six.

The Hurricanes have shown enough this postseason to prove they won’t just get obliterated by the Bruins. But this seems like a series Boston *should* be able to take care of.

Lauren: Bruins in seven.

Carolina has proven itself in this year’s postseason by eliminating the defending Stanley Cup champion Capitals before making easy work of the Islanders. But as Bruins head coach Bruce Cassidy said of Boston’s Game 6 victory in Columbus, “We want to create the storm.” It won’t be easy, but his team will do just that to eliminate the Hurricanes.