How Kemba Walker’s Injury Impacts Celtics’ Projected Win Total

One need not be a rocket scientist to conclude the Boston Celtics are better off with Kemba Walker on the court.

ESPN’s revised its projection for the Celtics’ win total in the 2020-21 NBA regular season downward to 39.3 on Tuesday, hours after the team announced the star point guard will be out until January due to lingering knee problems. ESPN combined its RPM projects and simulated the season 10,000 times to project the Celtics’ win total and give them an 89 percent chance of reaching the NBA playoffs.

“The Celtics surely will miss Gordon Hayward, whose departure leaves the team with just one reserve (young center Robert Williams III) with an RPM projection better than league average,” Kevin Pelton wrote. “Still, Boston’s starting five is strong enough to lift the Celtics to the top of a crowded second tier in the East projections.”

ESPN originally projected Boston to win 40.3 games, but the announcement of Walker’s impending absence prompted the Worldwide Leader to revise its projection and predict the Celtics would finish in fifth place in the Eastern Conference standings.

“The news … cost Boston a little more than a projected win and dropped the Celtics behind Miami and Philadelphia on average. This update is not yet factored into simulations, and Boston’s playoff probability will drop when it is.”

The Celtics are cautiously optimistic Walker will recover fully and make large contributions to the team’s pursuits of favorable playoff positioning and ultimately a shot at the NBA Finals.

However, ESPN’s projections suggest the Celtics will suffer the slightest of dips from expectations while they await Walker’s return.