These Two AFC Contenders Saw Playoff Chances Change Dramatically In Week 15

It’s that time of the year — when the outcome of one NFL game can change the entire trajectory of a team’s season. And while things aren’t that dire just yet for most teams — though the Jacksonville Jaguars, Detroit Lions, Houston Texans and New York Jets all have been mathematically eliminated from the postseason — the results of some Week 15 games dramatically changed the projections for some AFC contenders, according to data from NBC’s Steve Kornacki.

The New England Patriots dropped a bit after suffering a loss to the Indianapolis Colts, dipping from a 98% chance to a 96% chance to make the postseason and moving from the No. 1 seed down to No. 2 with the Kansas City Chiefs taking control.

But the more dramatic mover was on the other side of the New England game, as the Colts moved from a 60% chance entering Week 15 to an 80% chance later Sunday. Indianapolis now is the fifth seed in the conference, up from No. 6.

Elsewhere, the Baltimore Ravens — who entered the week with a 67% chance to make the postseason and the fourth seed after dropping two games in a row — saw their opportunities diminish following a narrow loss to the Green Bay Packers after a failed two-point conversion (yes, again.) Baltimore will head into Week 16 with just a 50% chance to make the postseason and is on the outside looking in at No. 8 after a third consecutive loss.

The Cincinnati Bengals were big climbers following a victory over the Denver Broncos, changing their 39% chance into a 51% chance while claiming the fourth seed in the AFC as they took the lead in the AFC North. The Bengals are up from the No. 9 spot entering the week.

Of course, these projections have to be taken with a grain of salt, as all of this will change after a unique week that will see two games each on Monday and Tuesday due to COVID-19 postponements before the Week 16 slate opens on Thursday.