MLB.com Predicts Free Agent Xander Bogaerts Will Sign With This Team

Most MLB.com reporters believe Xander Bogaerts’ first foray into free agency will have an anticlimactic conclusion.

Bogaerts recently opted out of his contract, which pushed the longtime Red Sox shortstop onto the open market for the first time in his big league career. The two-time World Series champion is one of the best players available this offseason, and that should be reflected by Bogaerts’ free-agent market.

But any club looking to land Bogaerts will have to compete with Boston, where Chaim Bloom and company have prioritized the four-time All-Star. And the bulk of the 50 MLB.com reporters asked about Bogaerts’ free agency believe the Red Sox will be successful in their effort to keep the 30-year-old in the organization.

“Most of our voters think Bogaerts will stay with the Red Sox, where the 30-year-old has spent all 10 of his big league seasons, won two World Series and made four All-Star teams, including his latest in 2022. Bogaerts opted out of his deal with the Red Sox with three years and $60 million left on it, but both sides have expressed interest in a reunion, and for the Sox, keeping Bogaerts as their shortstop is priority No. 1.

“Bogaerts re-signing with Boston would take one of the premier shortstops off the market, but if he does test that market, the other teams losing a shortstop of his caliber to free agency (Dodgers, Twins, Braves) could be options, as would the ones simply seeking a top-end shortstop (Phillies, Cubs). Those teams all received multiple votes as Bogaerts’ landing spot.”

What will it take for the Red Sox to prevent Bogaerts from signing elsewhere? The consensus from MLB experts points to a contract worth between $170-$220 million over six to seven years.