The 2023 NFL Draft goes through the Chicago Bears, and it's impossible to make any strong predictions until Ryan Poles makes his move.
The Chicago general manager holds the most important cards ahead of the draft, with the Bears currently holding the top selection. That No. 1 pick, however, might be slightly more valuable to teams searching for a quarterback. At least publicly, the Bears seem committed to Justin Fields, so Poles' best course of action is likely to trade that first selection.
If Chicago gets what it reportedly wants for the No. 1 pick, then it becomes an absolute no-brainer.
The Athletic's Robert Mays recently said on the "Hoge and Jahns" podcast, citing "little birdies," that teams looking to trade for that first overall pick better be ready to unload a whole bunch of draft capital to do so.
"The price that I heard from outside the top five is your (first-round pick) this year, a (second-round pick) this year, a first in 2024 and a first in 2025," Mays said (hat tip to ClutchPoints).
So, to recap, if you want to move up from outside the top five, this is what it looks like:
Chicago acquires: 2023 first-round pick, 2023 second-round pick, 2024 first-round pick, 2025 first-round pick
You acquire: No. 1 overall pick in the 2023 draft
As Mays pointed out, there is "precedence" for that sort of haul. The 49ers traded up in 2021 to acquire Trey Lance, and that involved obviously swapping firsts, as well as a first-round pick in 2022 and a first-round pick in this draft in addition to a compensatory third-round pick.
It does sound like a lot, but if you love a player, it might make sense. The problem, if you want to call it that, is there isn't an obvious slam-dunk selection for the No. 1 pick. There is no Peyton Manning or Andrew Luck this year.
DraftKings Sportsbook currently lists Bryce Young as the clear-cut favorite to go first overall, but after that, it's a bit of a toss-up among the top quarterbacks.
No. 1 pick odds
Bryce Young -200
Anthony Richardson +300
C.J. Stroud +450
Will Levis +1500
However, coming out of the scouting combine, we're reminded how quickly things can change. Richardson had a sensational performance, showcasing his seemingly generational athleticism. If one team falls in love with him, they could meet the asking price to ensure they nab the man they think is a franchise QB. Another scenario is multiple teams are infatuated with Young, despite question marks about his size, and begin a de facto bidding war to move up.
If either one of those things happen, Chicago will at least come close to satisfying its reported ask. And if the Bears can do that, it speeds up their rebuild exponentially with an ability to upgrade a poor roster ... especially if Fields truly is the answer at quarterback.
