Why Red Sox Should Be Ecstatic About Alex Verdugo’s Early 2023 Breakout

Alex Cora’s message at the end of last season was loud and clear: Alex Verdugo needed to be better in 2023.

So far, Verdugo has responded to his manager’s call-out in the best way possible, thriving in all facets of the game and solidifying himself as one of Boston’s most impactful players.

Let’s start with the surface numbers. Verdugo entered Friday slashing .338/.407/.481 with two home runs and eight RBIs through 20 games (86 plate appearances). He leads the team with 26 hits and has the highest wRC+ (149) among Boston’s six qualified position players.

The advanced analytics support Verdugo’s offensive breakout, too. His expected batting average (xBA) ranks in the 98th percentile across Major League Baseball. He’s making hard contact more consistently — evident by his average exit velocity, max exit velocity, hard-hit rate and barrel rate all tracking well relative to last year — and he’s showing an improved approach. Verdugo’s chase rate (84th percentile) and whiff rate (96th percentile) both would be career-best marks. Same goes for his strikeout rate (10.5%) and walk rate (9.3%).

Small sample size? Sure. And it’s not like Verdugo hasn’t flashed elite offensive upside in the past. But there’s little reason to believe, after a quick glimpse under the hood, that his current production isn’t mostly sustainable. The real difference is it’s been part of a bigger package. Verdugo is turning into a complete player, with his baserunning and defense — two all-too-frequent bugaboos — catching up to his potential in the batter’s box.

“Yeah, he hit for average, but he can be a lot better baserunning, defensively,” Cora told reporters last October, before Boston’s final game of the 2022 season. “He’s getting to that area in his career that’s, ‘Who is he gonna be?’ We talked about this with (Andrew Benintendi) a few years ago, right? You see the player he has become. (Benintendi) has become a better defender, a good hitter. I think Verdugo has the chance to hit for power, hit for average, but he can impact the game running the bases and playing defense.”

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Flash forward, and Verdugo ranks ninth among 186 qualified players in FanGraphs’ BsR, an all-encompassing baserunning metric that “turns stolen bases, caught stealings, and other base running plays (taking extra bases, being thrown out on the bases, etc) into runs above and below average.” He’s sandwiched between Ronald Acuña Jr. and Christian Yelich, whereas last season Verdugo ranked 82nd out of 130, one notch above Red Sox teammate Rafael Devers.

And defensively, Verdugo ranks in the 94th percentile in outs above average (OAA) and the 74th percentile in outfielder jump, marked improvements over his 13th percentile and 43rd percentile marks, respectively, last season while playing mostly left field.

Not only has Verdugo held his own in 2023 as Boston’s primary right fielder. He’s actually excelled on the grass. Only four MLB right fielders have more defensive runs saved (DRS) than Verdugo this season. And only three have a better UZR/150, which FanGraphs describes as the “number of runs above or below average a fielder is in both range runs, outfield arm runs, double play runs and error runs combined,” per 150 games.

This dynamic skill set is reflected in Verdugo’s 1.0 fWAR, which ranks 14th in all of baseball. For comparison, Verdugo posted 1.2 fWAR in 152 games last season, which ranked 107th. C.J. Cron and Miguel Rojas — a couple of ho-hum players — ranked 106th and 108th, respectively.

All told, this is the version of Verdugo the Red Sox signed up for when they traded Mookie Betts to the Los Angeles Dodgers for a package that included him, Connor Wong and the since-departed Jeter Downs.

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