Red Sox Weekend Warmup: Will Boston Produce Fireworks In July?

It’s the weekend before the Fourth of July, and the Boston Red Sox are celebrating with a trip north of the border.

No, the Red Sox haven’t been excommunicated amid their five-game losing streak. They’re simply traveling to Canada, where they’ll play three games of America’s pastime with the Toronto Blue Jays at Rogers Centre before returning home to Fenway Park for an Independence Day showdown with the Texas Rangers.

We’ve been trying to put our finger on the Red Sox’s identity all season, in large because they’ve been wildly inconsistent: Hot streak here, cold streak there. But perhaps it’s time to accept that that, in and of itself, is Boston’s identity.

Just when you think they’re about to collapse, the Red Sox start stringing together wins. And just when you think they’ve found their stride, boom, the losses begin piling up.

It’s a dangerous way to live, especially in the American League East, where Boston is the only team with a losing record. But it’s the Red Sox’s reality at this point, and barring significant changes, it could remain that way for the duration of 2023.

Worth noting, of course: The Major League Baseball trade deadline is Aug. 1. Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom hasn’t stated publicly whether the club intends to buy or sell — they faced a similar situation last year — but the next month nevertheless has the potential to produce fireworks, one way or another.

Red Sox odds (June 30)*
To win World Series: +10000
To win American League: +5000
To win AL East: +25000

While the long-shot odds to win the division might seem enticing, even the biggest optimist would have a difficult time finding a path to Boston winning the AL East. The Red Sox (40-42) entered Friday 15 games back of the first-place Tampa Bay Rays, with the Baltimore Orioles, New York Yankees and Blue Jays all sitting ahead of Boston.

There’s still a chance the Red Sox contend for a playoff berth, sitting just five games back of the AL’s third wild-card spot, but it’s undoubtedly an uphill climb as the calendar flips to July.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Probable pitchers
— Friday, June 30 (7:07 p.m. ET at Blue Jays): James Paxton, LHP (3-1, 3.19 ERA) vs. José Berríos, RHP (8-5, 3.60 ERA)

— Saturday, July 1 (3:07 p.m. ET at Blue Jays): Kutter Crawford, RHP (2-4, 4.01 ERA) vs. Yusei Kikuchi, LHP (7-2, 3.75 ERA)

— Sunday, July 2 (1:37 p.m. ET at Blue Jays): Garrett Whitlock, RHP (4-3, 5.15 ERA) vs. Kevin Gausman, RHP (7-4, 3.01 ERA)

Storylines to watch
1. How will James Paxton’s knee respond?
Paxton was removed from his most recent start after four innings (63 pitches) due to right knee soreness. He won’t miss a turn through the rotation — he’s slated to start Friday night’s series opener against Toronto — but it’s obviously a situation to monitor, especially since the issue first flared up in his previous outing against the Minnesota Twins on June 19.

2. Time to worry about Adam Duvall?
Duvall was one of the most productive hitters in baseball before suffering a fractured wrist April 9 and missing two months. Since returning June 9, he’s batting .167 (10-for-60) with one home run, four RBIs and a .548 OPS. Obviously, his early-season performance — .455/.514/1.030 with four homers and 14 RBIs in his first eight games — wasn’t sustainable. But the Red Sox surely were looking for a bigger boost when he returned from the injured list.

3. Will Red Sox’s defense improve?
The pitching has been fine, at times. The offense has been fine, at times. But the defense has been mostly bad for the Red Sox this season, particularly in the middle infield, where manager Alex Cora has been forced to juggle his shortstop-second base combinations more than he’d probably like.

“Defensively is where we need to tighten up the most, that’s no secret,” Red Sox chief baseball officer Chaim Bloom told MLB.com this week when asked if there’s one area Boston needs to focus on in the second half.

The secret’s out, sure. But there still are more questions than answers as the Red Sox search for stability in the field.