Red Sox Weekend Warmup: Will Boston’s Starting Pitching Bounce Back?

The Boston Red Sox had a shot to capitalize on a favorable stretch coming out of the All-Star break, but they came up short.

Boston split a six-game road trip against the Chicago Cubs and Oakland Athletics, failing to gain some valuable late-season ground when facing sub-.500 competitors. In the case of the Athletics, the Red Sox lost back-to-back matchups to the worst team in Major League Baseball. The A’s racked up 71 losses in their first 98 games.

Yet, there’s still time, room and upcoming contests against subpar competitors who are lost causes for postseason contention for the Red Sox to take advantage of, starting Friday night when Boston hosts the New York Mets (45-51) at Fenway Park.

One area of improvement that could propel Boston amid what’s proving to be a tight race to the American League wild card: starting pitching.

During their latest road trip, the Red Sox weren’t able to lean on their starters, who notched a 7.25 ERA in comparison to the bullpen’s 2.83 ERA, dooming Boston and possibly its playoff hopes ahead of the Aug. 1 trade deadline.

James Paxton and Brayan Bello had uncharacteristic outings, both failing to surpass four innings against Chicago and Oakland, respectively. That made for lost opportunities during a stretch where Boston needed to utilize bullpen arms as openers, derailing the team’s momentum (8-1, five-game winning streak entering the season’s second half).

Red Sox odds (July 21)*
To win World Series: +5500
To win American League: +2800
To win AL East: +6000
To make playoffs: +320

The Red Sox continue to work their way up the wager ladder, albeit still counted out by oddsmakers in the divisional market. Boston has the lowest odds of any AL East team. The Tampa Bay Rays are the only other division rival to fall twice in a row to Oakland.

Sure, the AL East crown is a farfetched target at this point, but Boston isn’t out of the playoff picture, just 2 1/2 games behind the Houston Astros in the wild-card race following Wednesday’s rubber-match loss in Oakland.

*Odds courtesy of FanDuel Sportsbook

Probable pitchers
— Friday, July 21 (7:10 p.m. ET vs. Mets): Kutter Crawford (4-4, 3.74 ERA) vs. Kodai Senga (7-5, 3.20 ERA)

— Saturday, July 22 (4:10 p.m. ET vs. Mets): James Paxton (5-2, 3.51 ERA) vs. Max Scherzer (8-3, 3.99 ERA)

— Sunday, July 23 (7:10 p.m. ET vs. Mets): TBD vs. Carlos Carrasco (3-3, 5.35 ERA)

Storylines to watch
1. Is Kutter Crawford slated for an encore performance on the mound?
Crawford stepped up in offering a huge helping hand during Boston’s road trip, shutting the door on the Cubs on Sunday. He pitched six shutout innings, surrendering just a single hit while striking out a career-high nine hitters in the process. Now, this begs the question: Can Crawford carry that momentum, getting the nod in the series opener against the Mets?

The right-hander has pitched to a 3.04 ERA, allowing nine runs and striking out 26 batters in his last five starts made for the Red Sox. He’s been very important as Boston battles injuries to its rotation.

2. Trevor Story watch
Story’s return has been long-awaited ever since the Red Sox transferred him to the 60-day injured list in February following offseason elbow surgery. The 30-year-old was booked to inherit the go-to shortstop role, but those plans since have been delayed, with Boston approaching August still missing the defensive stability — and All-Star bat — that Story provides.

The status of Story’s health reached a positive point recently when Red Sox manager Alex Cora revealed the team’s intentions for him to begin a rehab assignment Friday night with the Portland Sea Dogs in Double-A.

3. Building a case before the trade deadline
The answer still isn’t cut and dried. Do the Red Sox plan to sell or go all-in and invest in some October baseball?

Several players, including Chris Martin and Kenley Jansen, vocalized their support for the front office adding some late-season depth to help get the Red Sox over the hump. But will they?

Boston’s latest road trip was daunting at certain points, even aside from the 3-3 split. Therefore, a response could be the ideal move to support that plea for trade deadline activity. The Red Sox need to rise to the occasion and take advantage of a surprisingly lowly Mets team this weekend in Boston.