Blake Snell to Boston?
The Boston Red Sox need starting pitching, which is something you’re well aware of if you haven’t been living under a rock for the past few seasons.
In response to top back-to-back last-place finishes, Boston is undergoing a wealth of change this offseason. Craig Breslow, who helped rebuild the Chicago Cubs’ organizational pitching process, was brought aboard to do the same with the Red Sox. That doesn’t stop in the minor leagues, however.
Breslow has made it clear he intends on winning games right away, and if he wants to do that he’ll have to make pretty immediate improvements to the starting rotation. That much is understood by most, including former Major League Baseball general manager Jim Bowden, who recently released a list of free-agent fits for each MLB team.
His choice for the Red Sox? Blake Snell, the reigning National League Cy Young winner.
The Red Sox need to make a splash this winter and must address their biggest need: a top-of-the-rotation starter. Blake Snell, fresh off an NL Cy Young-winning season, would do the trick. He went 14-9 this year with a 2.25 ERA over 32 starts, striking out 234 in 180 innings. (He also issued 99 walks, and became the first pitcher to ever lead his league in both ERA and walks.) He finished the season strong, allowing no runs in five of his last six starts. Snell ranked in the 100th percentile in pitching run value and breaking run value according to Baseball Savant. Opposing batters hit .079 against his curveball, .185 against his changeup and .123 against his slider.
In his projection, Bowden sees Snell earning a seven-year, $174 million deal. That would tie the two-time Cy Young winner to Boston through his age-37 season.
It’s the second-heftiest pitching contract given in Bowden’s projections, coming in $37 million shy of Yoshinobu Yamamoto’s estimated seven-year deal with the New York Mets. Shohei Ohtani, who won’t pitch again until 2025, is estimated to join the Los Angeles Dodgers on a “10-year, $417 million with incentives that take the deal to more than $500 million.”
We’ve also done some matchmaking with Snell and the Red Sox, which you can find here. In an offseason where Boston needs pitching, there are few better available.