Patriots Now Guaranteed To Hold Draft Pick Within This Range

There still is a lot that can happen for the Patriots and their positioning in the 2024 NFL Draft. The No. 1 pick still is on the table, as is a treacherous slide down the draft board.

However, with two weeks left in the season, we now have a clearer image of where New England could be picking in the first round.

The Patriots will hold no lower than the ninth overall pick. The most wins New England can finish with is six, and there currently are nine teams with six or fewer victories.

Here’s the updated top 10, via Tankathon:

(Note: Strength of schedule is the first tiebreaker, with the team with the lower opponents’ winning percentage receiving the higher pick.)

1. Chicago Bears, via 2-13 Carolina Panthers (.522 SOS)
2. Arizona Cardinals, 3-12 (.561 SOS)
3. Washington Commanders, 4-11 (.518 SOS)
4. New England Patriots, 4-11 (.522 SOS)
5. New York Giants, 5-10 (.514 SOS)
6. Los Angeles Chargers, 5-10 (.525 SOS)
7. Tennessee Titans, 5-10 (.525 SOS)
8. Chicago Bears, 6-9 (.467 SOS)
9. New York Jets, 6-9 (.514 SOS)
10. Atlanta Falcons, 7-8 (.420 SOS)

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The situation could change as early as Thursday night. If the Jets pull off a road win over the Cleveland Browns, the Patriots would be locked into a top-eight pick. Moreover, they’d be locked into a top-seven pick if the Bears beat the Atlanta Falcons on Sunday.

Beyond that, the following three things are true about New England’s draft outlook:

— The Patriots will pick inside the top four if they lose the rest of their games.
— They’ll pick no worse than seventh if they win one of their final two games.
— They essentially are guaranteed to win an SOS tiebreaker over Arizona.

Ultimately, it’s all about the Commanders. If Washington wins one of its final two games and the Patriots lose out, New England will hold a top-three pick. As for the Cardinals, if they win one more game and New England loses out, the Patriots almost certainly will pick second overall.

The Carolina Panthers need to win their final two games for New England to have any shot at claiming the first overall pick.

The Patriots will visit the Buffalo Bills on Sunday before finishing out the season with a home matchup against the Jets.