What Analytics Now Say About Patriots’ Chances For Top Draft Pick
New England currently owns the second pick
The light at the end of the tunnel is getting brighter for the Patriots.
New England suffered a 27-17 home loss to the Kansas City Chiefs on Sunday. That result, along with other Week 15 outcomes around the NFL, improved the Patriots’ outlook for the 2024 NFL Draft.
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The Patriots now have a 10% chance of claiming the first overall pick, according to ESPN’s draft analytics, via Mike Reiss. New England began the weekend with a 3% chance of landing the first pick, but a Sunday win from the Carolina Panthers, who’ll send their first-round selection to the Chicago Bears, changed everything.
Additionally, here are the odds of landing a top-two pick for the teams currently occupying the top four spots in the draft order, per ESPN’s Seth Walder:
1. Chicago Bears (via Panthers): 96%
2. New England Patriots: 52%
3. Arizona Cardinals: 34%
4. Washington Commanders: 17%
All other teams: under 1%
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The Patriots will own a top-four pick if they win one or zero games the rest of the way. They’re guaranteed to pick in the top three — and likely the top two — if they lose out.
New England will finish its season with games against the Denver Broncos (road), Buffalo Bills (road) and New York Jets (home).
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