Analytics Say Patriots’ Odds Of Landing First Pick Have Plummeted

This time last week, the Patriots had a 19.4% chance of landing the first pick in the 2024 NFL Draft, according to ESPN’s analytics department.

Well, things have changed.

The combination of New England beating the Pittsburgh Steelers on Thursday and the Carolina Panthers losing to the New Orleans Saints on Sunday caused the Patriots’ first-pick odds to plummet. However, New England, which currently owns the second pick, still is in the driver’s seat for a top-three selection, thanks to some Week 14 results around the NFL.

Here’s how it all breaks down, per ESPN’s Seth Walder:

Chances to earn No. 1 overall pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): 95%
New England Patriots: 3%
Arizona Cardinals: 2%

Chances to earn top-two pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): 98%
New England Patriots: 41%
Arizona Cardinals: 30%
Washington Commanders: 12%
New York Giants: 12%
Tennessee Titans: 5%

Chances to earn top-three pick
Chicago Bears (via Carolina Panthers): 99%
New England Patriots: 62%
Arizona Cardinals: 53%
New York Giants: 33%
Washington Commanders: 31%
Tennessee Titans: 13%
Las Vegas Raiders: 5%
Chicago Bears: (own pick): 2%
New York Jets: 1%

Ultimately, it’s this simple for the 3-10 Patriots: If they lose the rest of their games, they’re guaranteed a top-three pick. But if they win one, let alone two, things could get interesting, as there currently are three teams with four wins and four teams with five wins.

Two of those teams — the Titans (at Miami Dolphins) and Giants (vs. Green Bay Packers) — will be in action Monday night. So, the Patriots’ draft outlook could look differently Tuesday morning.

New England will finish its season with games against the Kansas City Chiefs, Denver Broncos, Buffalo Bills and Jets.