Three Reasons Why 49ers Will Beat Chiefs In Super Bowl LVIII

Everyone who is backing the San Francisco 49ers to beat the Kansas City Chiefs in Super Bowl LVIII understands the decision they are making. They’re going against Patrick Mahomes.

In 12 career games as an underdog, Mahomes went 9-3 straight up. He was 10-1-1 against the spread in those contests and advanced to Allegiant Stadium after beating both the Buffalo Bills and Baltimore Ravens as a road underdog. Those who went against Mahomes once or even twice this postseason probably won’t be doing so a third time. They’ve learned their lesson.

We acknowledge that. We understand that. And maybe we’ll look silly Monday morning, too.

But we still can’t get away from the 49ers entering Super Bowl LVIII. We’ve outlined three reasons why.

1. The 49ers have more talent
Niners running back Christian McCaffrey and linebacker Fred Warner were two of the three unanimous selections for First Team All-Pro. In total, San Francisco has five First-Team All-Pros with left tackle Trent Williams, fullback Kyle Juszczyk and tight end George Kittle rounding out the unit. That group doesn’t include second-teamers in wide receiver Brandon Aiyuk and cornerback Charvarius Ward.

It also doesn’t include any of San Francisco’s pass-rushers like reigning Defensive Player of the Year Nick Bosa, who has two sacks in two playoff games after 10.5 in the regular season, or dual-threat star Deebo Samuel. General manager John Lynch and head coach Kyle Shanahan have been in lockstep and built the league’s best roster.

Kansas City had three First Team selections including guard Joe Thuney, who is questionable for the game, defensive tackle Chris Jones and slot cornerback Trent McDuffie. To be fair, that doesn’t include Mahomes or Travis Kelce, the star tight end who is averaging 87 yards and 7.7 receptions per game in the postseason with three scores.

Mahomes has the ability to erase a lot. But San Francisco has the talent advantage, especially on offense where the 49ers ranked first in DVOA (defense-adjusted value over average) and held a sizable advantage over the No. 2 Miami Dolphins.

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2. Kansas City’s weakness is San Francisco’s strength
The best way to attack the Chiefs is in the run game. That’s where Kansas City truly struggled as it ranked No. 27 in DVOA this season. The Chiefs gashed the Bills in the AFC divisional round to the tune of 182 on the ground and 4.7 per rush. Unfortunately for the Chiefs, the 49ers have had the best ground game all season. McCaffrey led the NFL with 1,459 rushing yards and ranked first among running backs in yards per attempt (5.4).

The strength of the Chiefs’ defense is Jones and the secondary. Kansas City is best when it fills the field with defensive backs, including shutdown cornerbacks L’Jarius Sneed and McDuffie. It begs the question: Can the defense’s sub packages hold up against the run? The 49ers’ heavy personnel could make it incredibly difficult.

The Ringer’s Sheil Kapadia pointed out the 49ers record the NFL’s best success rate when they run the ball out of 11 personnel (one running back, one receiver). Their success is due to the versatility of Juszczyk and Kittle, among others. The Chiefs rank 31st in success rate when defending the run out of 11 personnel.

Expect the offensive-minded Shanahan to try and exploit that matchup.

Total rushing yards (incl. overtime)

Best Odds Available

Over

Under

SF at KC

Christian McCaffrey

SF – RB

Sunday Feb. 11

o86.5 -120

DraftKings

u91.5 -110

FanDuel

3. Kyle Shanahan and the destiny factor
No, this isn’t the typical X’s and O’s reasoning, but there’s still something to be said about it. Shanahan and the 49ers long have been one of the top teams in the league. San Francisco reached the conference championship in four of the last five seasons and have a pair of Super Bowl berths in that span, the other being a loss to the Chiefs in Super Bowl LIV. San Francisco might have even reached the Super Bowl last year if not for a brutal string of injury luck, capped off by not having a quarterback in the NFC Championship Game. As trivial as this is, it just feels like this is the year the 49ers do it.