Why Chiefs Will Go Back-To-Back, Beat 49ers In Super Bowl LVIII

It’s been a bumpy road, but the Chiefs are back in the Super Bowl, and they are primed for a repeat.

Betting odds would differ with Kansas City as a two-point underdog against the San Francisco 49ers in Super Bowl LVIII at Allegiant Stadium, according to NESN Bets consensus data. And it might seem like a fish move to side with the public, who likely will come in with massive numbers to back the Chiefs thanks to Patrick Mahomes, Andy Reid, Travis Kelce and Taylor Swift.

Matchups are magnified in the Super Bowl, and Reid is one of the best when it comes to exploiting matchups, especially when he’s given extra time to do so. The Chiefs head coach is 31-7 after a bye week, and there should be a clear game plan against a San Francisco defense that struggled against upstart Jordan Love and Jared Goff.

Kansas City won the past three matchups against the 49ers, including Super Bowl LIV. Mahomes and Reid have been able to tear apart San Fran’s defense no matter if it was Robert Saleh, DeMeco Ryans or Steve Wilks as the coordinator.

Fans should expect the Chiefs to utilize Isiah Pacheco in the run game and take advantage of an overly aggressive pass rush with screens and quick passes. It’s a game plan where Pacheco and Rashee Rice should thrive, and Kelce can be dangerous in the screen game, too. That will help the offensive line, especially if Joe Thuney can’t suit up.

Long gone are the days when Kansas City would generate chunk plays, and the Chiefs now are a team that will beat you slowly as they drive down the field for a score.

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How San Francisco chooses to combat the Chiefs offense will be worth monitoring. The 49ers have been bad at stopping the run when they don’t stack the box, but if they do go all out to stop Pacheco, that leaves Mahomes opportunities in the passing game. That might be where Wilks chooses to live and die with Rice and Kelce as the only pass-catchers serving as serious threats. Marquez Valdes-Scantling quietly has been a clutch playoff player, but you’d rather have him, Justin Watson or Noah Gray beat you if you’re the Niners.

The belief Mahomes has in his teammates means they will get their targets, and the 49ers don’t have world-beaters in their secondary outside of Charvarius Ward. Kansas City’s offense hasn’t thrived like it typically has, especially in the second half of games, but there are enough plus matchups to build a lead.

And if it does get a lead, that’s when the defense can thrive. Chris Jones and George Karlaftis will be key in slowing down Christian McCaffrey and Deebo Samuel in the run game. And Steve Spagnuolo has been so good this season at simulating pressure and disgusting coverages. Brock Purdy is a lot better than his critics think he is, but he’s going to have trouble against a defense that is among the league leaders in batted passes.

Kyle Shanahan is a master at play-action design and setting up his best players in open space, but if the Chiefs can generate pressure to disrupt Purdy or get their hands up to prevent a big gain, that will be the difference in this matchup.

All eyes on the secondary will be on L’Jarius Sneed and Trent McDuffie, but Justin Reid had a great postseason heading into the Super Bowl. He’s been versatile in Spagnuolo’s scheme, and Reid brings the physicality that will be needed against the likes of Samuel and George Kittle.

A weakness of Shanahan’s is his unwillingness to maximize the talent of his team. He continuously chooses to “take the points” rather than score touchdowns to win the game. Reid has the same problem in the regular season, but he does go for it more often in the postseason. That fourth down and timeout decision-making will be pivotal in this matchup.

Kansas City simply has too many difference-makers on defense to handle the 49ers’ playmakers, and Mahomes and Reid have an answer for anything the defense gives them. The Chiefs signal-caller likely wins Super Bowl MVP, but Pacheco and Rice are interesting value picks. Pacheco can do so if he breaks off a big run and takes a screen to the house for at least two touchdowns.

Score prediction: Chiefs 27 — 49ers 13