MLB Analytics Expert Drops (Very) ‘Bold’ Prediction About 2024 Red Sox

The Red Sox’s greatest unknown ultimately might be an area of strength.

Much has been made about the uncertainty surrounding Boston’s rotation, which is littered with both upside and question marks, but The Athletic’s Eno Sarris has high expectations for the unit heading into 2024.

Sarris, an MLB analytics expert, offered 10 “bold” predictions for this baseball season in a piece published Wednesday. Among them: Sarris believes the Red Sox will have a top-five rotation in the American League.

“The Red Sox rotation had the fifth-best strikeout-minus-walk rate in the American League this spring, and that’s usually a powerful predictor,” Sarris wrote. “This team has a great offense; if these pitchers pitch as they are capable, the team will do well and maybe even add a rotation arm at the deadline. At the very least, this situation doesn’t seem as dire as some make it.”

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The Red Sox rotation consists of Brayan Bello, Nick Pivetta, Kutter Crawford, Garrett Whitlock and Tanner Houck to begin the season. It’s a talented group — one capable of taking a huge leap forward — and Sarris in his column pointed out reasons to be optimistic about each pitcher.

It’s a refreshing dose of positivity, seeing as most outside expectations for the Red Sox are tempered ahead of the new campaign. And it’s not total blind faith, either. Sarris is a senior writer, at the national level, who crunches the numbers. There’s tangible evidence of the potential in Boston’s arms.

Of course, there’s a huge difference between potential and actual performance, though. It’s now incumbent upon the Red Sox to deliver between the lines, where they struggled the past two years.

For context, the Red Sox rotation finished 22nd in WAR, 22nd in ERA, 20th in FIP and 17th in WHIP last season. So, jumping into the top five among AL rotations would represent a significant year-over-year improvement.