Kyle Dugger Deal Likely Takes Patriots Out Running For Best Available Free Agent

Veteran safety Justin Simmons is considered the top free agent still available one month into the 2024 season. But Patriots fans who hoped Simmons would be a big-ticket item for New England probably shouldn’t hold their breath.

The reported deal for Kyle Dugger more or less confirms as much.

It felt like a bit of a pipe dream as soon as the Denver Broncos made the 30-year-old Simmons a cap casualty. Because while Simmons, a second team All-Pro in four of the last five campaigns, would fill the free-safety role left by Patriots franchise great Devin McCourty, New England had bigger needs. And the Patriots made it clear in free agency they were more likely to spend on their own culture-builders than external options.

Dugger and the Patriots on Sunday reportedly agreed to a four-year deal worth $58 million. The pact holds a maximum value of $66 million with $32.5 million guaranteed, per NFL Media’s Ian Rapoport. Dugger’s $14.5 million average annual value makes him the sixth-highest paid safety in the NFL.

The Patriots will enter the 2024 campaign seventh in spending at the safety position ($24.6 million), per Spotrac. They’re about $1 million away from ranking fourth.

It’s difficult to imagine they pay Simmons on top of that. An eight-year veteran, Simmons has a projected market value of two years and $22.2 million, per Spotrac. A deal with $11 million AAV would mean the Patriots overtake the Arizona Cardinals ($34.4 million) and lead the league in spending at safety.

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Now it’s worth noting the safeties who the Patriots currently have atop the depth chart — Dugger, Jabrill Peppers, Marte Mapu — don’t offer the same skillset as a player like Simmons. Simmons patrols the middle of the field while Dugger, Peppers and Mapu are better served as box safeties, playing closer to the line of scrimmage. Dugger, specifically, does provide versatility with serviceable pass defense, but his strengths are his strengths.

So from a roster standpoint, Simmons would fill a role on DeMarcus Covington’s defense. The Patriots didn’t have a free safety last season following McCourty’s retirement.

But from a financial perspective, it feels far-fetched the Patriots would spend on Simmons after doing so on Dugger. And should they want to keep the hard-hitting Peppers, a free agent next offseason, in New England, they would need to consider that as well.