Red Sox Know Better Than Anyone No. 12 Draft Pick Can Be Franchise-Changing

The draft in every sport is a crapshoot to some extent, and none is more seemingly random than the Major League Baseball draft, where the Red Sox will select 12th overall Sunday night.

While it’s relatively easy to identify and reach a consensus on who should be taken atop the MLB draft, ensuring those high picks turn into franchise cornerstones is a fraught, circumstantial and oftentimes lengthy process. As such, using past drafts to predict or project future drafts is foolish, but it’s the end of a week in the middle of July, so what else are we supposed to do?

So, what can the Red Sox expect to find? Unsurprisingly, history tells us it’s a mixed bag and we might as well flip a coin. That being said, one name stands out above the rest.

The Red Sox had the 12th overall pick in the 1994 MLB Draft. After watching eventual journeyman pitcher Jaret Wright go off the board at No. 10 to Cleveland, Pittsburgh went to the podium and grabbed high school shortstop Mark Farris, who never reached the big leagues. The Red Sox then used the No. 12 pick to select Georgia Tech shortstop Nomar Garciaparra.

That turned out to be a pretty shrewd move. Garciaparra made his big-league debut two years later, and by the end of 1997, he had won American League Rookie of the Year and was a perennial MVP candidate. He won back-to-back batting titles in 1999 and 2000.

In fact, Garciaparra was the best overall player selected in the ’94 draft, at least by Baseball Reference wins above replacement. Longtime White Sox first baseman Paul Konerko checked in at No. 2, and right behind him was Georgia Tech catcher Jason Varitek, whom the Mariners selected two picks after Garciaparra. The backstop was not long for the Seattle organization, though.

The Red Sox have swung and missed at No. 12, too. The last time they had that specific pick, they used it to draft pitcher Jay Groome. The left-hander pitched 16 innings above Double-A in the Boston organization before the Sox traded him to San Diego in 2022 as part of the Eric Hosmer deal. Groome has yet to reach the majors with the Padres and just received a one-year suspension for betting on baseball.

The other two No. 12 picks in Red Sox history: pitcher Tom Fischer in 1988 and shortstop Adam Everett in 1998.

By bWAR, Garciaparra is the best No. 12 pick of all time, edging out Kirk Gibson, a former MVP, who was the Tigers’ first-round pick in 1978. A year before the Red Sox drafted Garciaparra, the Astros used that pick on Billy Wagner. The flame-throwing left-hander turned into one of the best closers of all time and could soon find his plaque in Cooperstown as a baseball Hall of Famer.

Other good-ish No. 12 picks include:

RHP Jered Weaver (34.6 WAR)
INF Delino DeShields (24.4 WAR)
RHP Matt Morris (20.4 WAR)
1B Jay Bruce (19.9 WAR)
C Yasmani Grandal (19.2 WAR)

Of recent No. 12 picks, the last three — Tommy Troy, Jace Jung and Harry Ford — all entered the 2024 season as top-100 prospects on Baseball Prospectus’ list.