Why Tua Tagovailoa Contract Could Age Like Milk For Win-Now Dolphins

The Miami Dolphins could very well come to regret the massive contract they gave to Tua Tagovailoa — even if they didn’t really have an option.

The Fins and their quarterback recently came to terms on a contract extension that could reportedly be worth up to $212.4 million, making him one of the highest-paid signal-callers in the league. The agreement comes with more than $167 million guaranteed, and it does lower the 26-year-old’s cap hit to $9.25 million in 2024. That number spikes beginning in 2025 to nearly $60 million before surpassing that figure in 2026.

That’s a lot of money for a quarterback who played every game in 2023 for the first time in his four-year career and who has one game of playoff experience under his belt, in which he barely completed 50% of his passes with a 63.9 passer rating.

Such is life for NFL quarterbacks. Tagovailoa was the next man up, and he was paid as the market dictated. Theoretically, the Dolphins could have eventually moved on, but Tagovailoa’s familiarity with the system is undeniable. To his credit, the 2023 season might have been the best of his career; he led the NFL in passing yards while also throwing a career-high 29 touchdowns. The question with Tagovailoa, however, might always be this: Does he make the system or does the system make him?

Few quarterbacks have the luxury of throwing to two top-end receivers like Tyreek Hill and Jaylen Waddle, and there might not be another QB in the league whose setup is as good when you factor in Mike McDaniel calling the shots.

NESN.com’s Mike Cole and Ricky Doyle are both a little apprehensive about the new deal for Tua, something they discussed on this week’s episode of “The Spread” where they broke down the contracts for Tagovailoa and Jordan Love.

“A lot of Tua’s success is predicated on what’s around him,” Doyle said. “I don’t even mean that as a knock. But what Miami has built, I feel like that’s why he’s thriving. And he is thriving, to his credit. But I dunno, if things goes south, and they fire Mike McDaniel in two years, what’s Tua going to be at that point, in a different-looking offense? I have worries about that.”

In some sense, this feels like a short-term move, too. It’s only a four-year deal, and while the cap hit is fine for 2024, it’s worth wondering whether the massive jump in 2025 and beyond could hurt Miami’s roster-building efforts, and that’s before you even consider the injury history.

“I understand why the Dolphins felt they needed to do this. The more I think about it, the more I think it’s a bad deal for a lot of the reasons you mentioned,” Cole said. “I understand the alternative is you’ve gotta find a quarterback who fits the system as well — and Tua does (fit the system). I give him credit. When healthy, he gets the ball in the hands of very good playmakers. … Does this keep them from being able to re-sign Jaylen Waddle down the road? … Do they have to cut Tyreek Hill at some point? All of a sudden, you take the things that make him valuable, and all of a sudden, his contract is getting in the way of what makes him valuable to this roster as it’s currently constituted.”

Pressed to choose between the two QBs, both Doyle and Cole believe Love’s deal will age better, given what he showed in an admittedly smaller sample size in 2023, doing it without the name-brand supporting cast Tagovailoa gets to lean on.

You can hear the entire discussion and listen to the full episode of “The Spread” on Spotify by clicking here.