Red Sox Named One Of MLB’s Unluckiest Teams In First Half

The Boston Red Sox have been inconsistent this year, making them difficult to evaluate. They’ve looked fantastic for stretches (especially lately) and have been frustrating to watch at other times, making them something of an enigma after 103 games.

Overall, the Red Sox have been more good than bad, going 54-49 prior to Wednesday’s series finale against the Philadelphia Phillies. However, luck hasn’t been on their side.

In fact, they’ve been one of the unluckiest teams in baseball, according to a recent statistical study from Neil Paine of The Athletic (subscription required).

With fewer dominant teams than usual at the All-Star break, the 2025 MLB season has been ruled by fortune, good or bad, more than most in recent memory.

So which teams have been the most lucky and unlucky?https://t.co/f2oeH6OqVy pic.twitter.com/y3EI6tUVWa

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) July 22, 2025

Per Paine’s calculations, which factor in run differential (close-game luck) and offensive/defensive timing (timing luck), Boston was the fifth-unluckiest team in baseball prior to the All-Star Break, winning 5.3 fewer games than expected.

That’s not too surprising given the Red Sox’s struggles in close games this year. They’re 12-20 in one-run games and 5-10 in extra innings, both of which are essentially coin flips. With better luck, Boston would have a few more wins in those scenarios.

While the Red Sox have been slightly lucky with their offensive timing, they have the worst defensive timing in baseball, meaning they’ve allowed many more runs than they should have based on FanGraphs’ BaseRuns formula. That’s what happens when you have the most errors and catcher’s interferences in the Major Leagues.

Boston’s Pythagorean record is 57-46 — three wins better than its actual record. If that was the Red Sox’s real record, they’d be second in the American League East rather than third and have the American League’s top wild card spot instead of the third.

Those are big differences. Every game counts, especially in a crowded AL East where four teams have legitimate playoff hopes.

Boston’s due for better luck in the second half, but so far, it hasn’t happened. The Red Sox are 1-4 since the All-Star Break and just became the second MLB team ever to lose a game on catcher’s interference.

If they want to get back on track and reach the postseason, they might have to start making their own luck.