Red Sox Rookies Trail Overwhelming New Favorite In Award Odds

The Boston Red Sox are now far less likely to roster the 2025 American League Rookie of the Year.

Carlos Narváez made a compelling argument to take home the award during a standout first half, and Roman Anthony started surging into the conversation. That may all be moot because Nick Kurtz won’t stop mashing.

Kurtz made history Friday night, going 6-for-6 and becoming the first rookie to hit four home runs in a single game. The Athletics first baseman didn’t deposit his first career long ball until May 13, but he now leads all neophytes with 23 homers this season.

A previously intriguing race is now an open-and-shut case in the eyes of oddsmakers. Kurtz was listed at +350 behind Jacob Wilson (+110) on DraftKings Sportsbook at the All-Star break, but he’s shot ahead of his teammate as a demonstrative -1800 favorite to win AL Rookie of the Year.

Anthony has fallen from +2500 to +3500 despite starting the second half with a .915 OPS. Narváez moved ahead of the Red Sox outfielder to fourth, but the catcher remains a +3000 longshot behind Kurtz, Wilson (+700) and Houston Astros outfielder Cam Smith (+1900).

Although Friday’s historic performance forced a course correction, it wasn’t a one-off outing for Kurtz. The 22-year-old is batting .309/.378/.683 with a higher wRC+ (184) than everyone besides Aaron Judge.

Kurtz is slugging an MLB-best .832 since the start of June, well ahead of runner-up Eugenio Suárez’s .674. He’s now ahead of Narváez and all other rookies in WAR on FanGraphs and Baseball Reference.

To no fault of their own, Narváez and Anthony are likely out of the Rookie of the Year running unless Kurtz slows down substantially over the next two months.