Experts Give Red Sox Best Chance To Make Playoffs In Years

The Boston Red Sox currently hold the second American League Wild Card spot, 1/2 game behind the New York Yankees.

Over the past few seasons, the Red Sox have hovered on the edge of the playoff picture until about the trade deadline, before August takes them out of the race.

According to Fangraphs, the Red Sox have a 79.4% chance of making the playoffs. That number is the highest the Red Sox have held through 128 games since the 2018 season. That season, the Red Sox were a ridiculous 89-39 through 128 games, and Fangraphs gave them a 100% chance of making the playoffs, although they had yet to officially clinch.

The last time the Red Sox made the playoffs was the 2021 season. They clinched an American League Wild Card spot on the final day of that season with a win over the Washington Nationals.

The 2021 team was slightly ahead of the current team’s pace at 72-56 through 128 games. The model gave the Red Sox a 76.9% chance of making the postseason, although there were only two Wild Card spots in 2021, making qualification more difficult.

The Red Sox have a fairly easy remaining schedule, at least by winning percentage. Opponents on the Red Sox schedule have a combined .501 winning percentage. According to Tankathon, that’s the 17th hardest schedule in the league. Including the ongoing series against the Yankees, only four of the Red Sox’s final 11 series opponents are currently in the playoff picture.

They play six games against the Athletics, who are currently 11 games under .500, but have been playing good baseball lately. They do finish the season on a tough stretch, with six games against the division-leading Toronto Blue Jays and Detroit Tigers.