Where Do Red Sox Rank Among Playoff Contenders? MLB Insider’s Breakdown

The Boston Red Sox remain in control of their own postseason fate after dropping two of three games over the weekend to the San Diego Padres. But playoff baseball at Fenway Park is far from a sure thing this fall.

ESPN’s David Schoenfield ranked all of the clubs contending for playoff spots and broke teams up into tiers. The Red Sox landed in Tier III: “Have work to do.” Tier I includes the locks and Tier II includes the teams that should get in.

The key to Boston’s postseason plans is the pitching staff.

“While going 24-10 since June 30, the Red Sox have a 3.08 ERA,” Schoenfield wrote Monday. “Garrett Crochet has led the way and is now toe-to-toe with Tarik Skubal in the AL Cy Young race, but Lucas Giolito is also 7-1 with a 2.43 ERA over his past 11 starts and Brayan Bello is 5-2 with a 2.42 ERA since July 1.”

As a team, the Red Sox have a 3.35 ERA over the last 30 days, which is third-best in the big leagues.

When it comes to injuries, Schoenfield noted the club should pay close attention to closer Aroldis Chapman.

“Though he’s not on the IL, closer Aroldis Chapman left a game in late July because of back tightness,” Schoenfield said. “He has allowed one earned run over his past 32 innings, so keeping the 37-year-old healthy is vital.”

Chapman is tied for sixth in the American League with 21 saves. But he’s not the player to watch during the next two months. Schoenfield gave that honor to rookie outfielder Roman Anthony.

“Though the 21-year-old has shown precocious plate discipline that suggests the bright future the Red Sox are banking on, his home run power hasn’t shown up yet, in part because he’s still hitting a lot of balls on the ground,” Schoenfield added. “He’s already good, but maybe he’ll be great down the stretch.”

Joining Boston in Tier III are the New York Yankees, Houston Astros and Seattle Mariners.

The Red Sox (65-54) are in second place in the American League East, four games behind the first-place Toronto Blue Jays. They also are in second place in the AL Wild Card standings, one game behind the Mariners.

According to FanGraphs, Boston has a 75.1% chance of making the playoffs. The Red Sox last qualified for the postseason in 2021, when they lost to the Astros in the American League Championship Series.