Red Sox Playoff Scenarios, Odds Vs. Yankees, Tigers, Astros, Guardians

So you’re saying there’s a chance? The Boston Red Sox enter the final week of the 2025 regular season in the mix for a spot in the playoffs. But which spot? And who do they need to hold off to qualify for the postseason?

The Boston Globe’s Tim Healey broke down the “non-exhaustive list of the possibilities going into last week of the season.”

– Red Sox catch Yankees, steal first wild card & home-field advantage.

– Sox hold second wild card, go to Yankees for first round.

– Sox fight Tigers for last wild card during final series.

– Sox fight Tigers during final series, Tigers win division, Sox win third wild card, both teams fly to Detroit on Sunday night for first round beginning Tuesday.

– Sox end up in any of New York, Detroit, Cleveland, Seattle for first round.

– Sox miss playoffs completely.

So as you can see, the only thing we know at this point is we don’t know what lies ahead for the Red Sox. FanGraphs gives Boston a 90.1% chance of making the playoffs, while the Tigers have an 84.6% chance, the Astros have a 66.3% chance and the Guardians have a 59.0% chance.

The Yankees have a 100% chance even though they haven’t clinched anything yet. The Blue Jays already clinched a playoff spot.

Heading into play Tuesday, Toronto has a two-game lead over New York in the American League East while Boston is five back.

The Yankees have a four-game lead in the AL Wild Card standings, while the Red Sox are in second place, one game ahead of the Guardians and Astros, who are tied for the third and final wild card.

The fun begins Tuesday when the Red Sox open a three-game series in Toronto before returning home to close out the regular season against the Tigers at Fenway Park.