Three Storylines To Follow In Red Sox Series Vs. Blue Jays

The Boston Red Sox begin a three-game series with the Toronto Blue Jays on Tuesday with serious playoff implications on the line. The Blue Jays have already clinched a playoff spot and are looking to secure the American League East, while the Red Sox are fighting to stay in control of a Wild Card spot.

Here are three key areas that could determine the result of the series.

Rotation Rotation Rotation

Whichever team gets more from their starting rotation could very well come away with the series. Over the last 30 days, the Blue Jays’ bullpen had a 4.45 ERA. They have Kevin Gausman, Max Scherzer and Shane Bieber lined up for the three-game set. Gausman and Bieber have been excellent of late, while Scherzer has struggled. With the Red Sox having a hard time scoring runs, their best bet at putting up crooked numbers might be against the pen. They’ll have to find a way to get the starters out of the game to do so, though.

On the other side, the Red Sox have the top three in their rotation set to start. Lucas Giolito and Brayan Bello have scuffled recently, but Crochet remains the stopper the Red Sox have needed. The back of the Red Sox pen has been lights out. They’ll need length from the starters to skip the middle relief and hand it straight to the high-leverage guys to take the series.

Hitting With Ducks On The Pond

The team that strikes out fewer times in a game typically has a better chance of winning. It’s the least productive out you can make. The Red Sox’s strikeout rate over the last 30 days is around league average at 21.3%, but the punchouts have come at critical moments. With runners in scoring position, they’ve struck out in 23.2% of plate appearances, 20th best in baseball over that span. Conversely, the Blue Jays rarely ever strike out. They have a league-best 17.7% strikeout rate on the season, and have the third-best mark over the last 30 days. With runners in scoring position, they’ve struck out just 15.6% of the time in that span. Squandered opportunities have killed the Red Sox of late, whereas the Blue Jays have taken their chances.

The Running Red Sox

If you can’t string together hits to score runs, why not play a little small ball? The Red Sox are sixth in baseball with 137 stolen bases. According to Baseball Savant’s “Net Bases Prevented” leaderboard, Toronto pitching hasn’t been great at managing the running game. They rank 24th in the league in that metric. Their catchers, Alejandro Kirk and Tyler Heineman, each have solid pop times, but neither has a reputation for being someone to avoid running against.

On the other hand, the Blue Jays rank near the bottom of the league in stolen bases. Red Sox pitchers haven’t managed the run game great, but Carlos Narvaez has been excellent at throwing out would-be base stealers. With few base-stealing threats on Toronto’s active roster, the Red Sox have a clear advantage on the basepaths and could use it to manufacture runs if the bats stay cold.