Predicting Red Sox-Lucas Giolito Qualifying Offer Free Agency Decision

Will he stay or will he go? That’s what the Boston Red Sox need to decide when it comes to Lucas Giolito.

The right-hander pitched 145 innings in 2025, which turned his 2026 contract into a mutual option, meaning he can choose to return to the open market. But Giolito ran out of gas at the end of the season and missed the playoffs with an injury to his right elbow.

Qualifying Offer Debate

So will the Red Sox extend Giolito the qualifying offer: a one-year, $22.05 million contract which assures Boston it will receive draft-pick compensation if the 31-year-old walks?

“If I’m the Red Sox, I’m giving Lucas Giolito the qualifying offer of $22.025 million — assuming, that is, the elbow soreness he suffered late in the year isn’t structural,” Masslive.com’s Sean McAdam predicted.

“That doesn’t mean they shouldn’t look to otherwise upgrade the rotation via a trade or free agency,” McAdam continued. “If Giolito accepts, he’s a pretty good No. 3 starter at a relatively reasonable cost; if he doesn’t, the Red Sox get an extra draft pick should he sign elsewhere.”

Speaking of that draft pick, the Boston Globe’s Tim Healey chased down that angle.

“If the Red Sox issue a qualifying offer to Lucas Giolito, and if he turns it down & signs elsewhere, their extra 2026 draft pick would come after the fourth round,” Healey noted. “That is part of the penalty for exceeding the luxury-lax threshold. Otherwise it would be before the third round.”

Giolito’s Freedom Trail

Giolito signed with the Red Sox ahead of the 2024 season but ended up missing the year while recovering from elbow surgery.

This year, Giolito impressed during the regular season, going 10-4 with a 3.41 ERA in 26 starts.

Before joining Boston, Giolito previously pitched for the Washington Nationals, Chicago White Sox, Los Angeles Angels and Cleveland Guardians.

He was an All-Star in Chicago and finished in the top 11 for Cy Young Award voting three times.