How Soon Can Patriots Clinch AFC East? Here’s Clearest Path

We might be just a few weeks away from hats and t-shirts being passed around the Patriots locker room.

New England is on the verge of clinching its first AFC East title since 2019. The Buffalo Bills won the last five division crowns, but the 10-2 Patriots currently sit atop the AFC East standings with six weeks left on the schedule.

So, how soon could the Patriots clinch the division?

Their path is relatively straightforward, and we’ll break it all down in a moment. But first, let’s look at the remaining schedules for New England and Buffalo.

Patriots (10-2, first in AFC East)
Week 13: vs. New York Giants
Week 14: BYE
Week 15: vs. Bills
Week 16: at Baltimore Ravens
Week 17: at New York Jets
Week 18: vs. Miami Dolphins

Bills (7-4, second in AFC East)
Week 13: at Pittsburgh Steelers
Week 14: vs. Cincinnati Bengals
Week 15: at Patriots
Week 16: at Cleveland Browns
Week 17: vs. Philadelphia Eagles
Week 18: vs. Jets

The Patriots will be AFC East champions if they beat the Giants and Bills. If they win those two games, it won’t matter what Buffalo does against Pittsburgh and Cincinnati. The Patriots will have gone 2-0 against Buffalo — head-to-head matchups are the first tiebreaker — and winning their next two games would guarantee they can’t finish with more losses than the Bills.

However, New England doesn’t need to beat the Giants. If the Bills lose either of their next two games, the Patriots still would clinch the AFC East with a win over Buffalo in Week 15 even if they lose to New York on “Monday Night Football.”

Of course, all bets are off if the Patriots lose to Buffalo, let alone also losing to New York. That would open the door for tiebreakers, which could go in the Bills’ favor. The divisional-record tiebreaker is first up; New England entered Week 13 with a 3-0 in-division record, whereas Buffalo was 2-2 against AFC East opponents.

But what if the Patriots and Bills finish with the same AFC East records?

Here’s one disaster scenario that isn’t too implausible: Patriots and Bills both win this week; Buffalo loses to Cincinnati in Week 14; Bills beat Patriots the following week; Buffalo then wins its final three games; New England goes 1-2 over the final three weeks, including a Week 18 home loss to the Miami Dolphins.

So, Buffalo goes 5-1 the rest of the way, including a win over New England, and the Patriots go 2-3. That would leave both teams at 12-5 overall, 4-2 in the division and 8-4 in the conference. The common-games tiebreaker then would come into play, with the strength-of-victory tiebreaker next in line if common-games records are the same.

Here’s hoping things don’t get that complicated.

As for clinching a playoff spot, the Patriots actually could accomplish that as soon as this week if they beat the Giants and get some help around the NFL. But we’ll spare you the playoff-scenario mathematics and the accompanying ice-cream headache.