The playoffs have transformed from a long shot to a highly probable endgame for the New England Patriots.
New England improved to 7-2 after Sunday’s 24-23 win over the Atlanta Falcons. The Patriots maintain a half-game lead over the Buffalo Bills in the AFC East and are tied with the Indianapolis Colts and Denver Broncos for the conference’s No. 1 seed.
Patriots fans will love one projection model’s assessment of the NFL postseason picture. The Athletic gives the Patriots a 97 percent chance of making the playoffs, the highest probability of any team.
Although the Bills are second with a 95 percent playoff probability, The Athletic favors the Pats with a 60 percent chance of capturing their first division title since 2019. New England also has the NFL’s highest probability of earning a first-round bye at 28 percent.
The Patriots still aren’t favored to go the distance. The Athletic gives the Los Angeles Rams (13%) and Philadelphia Eagles (10%) the best odds of winning the Super Bowl.
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However, the forecaster isn’t treating New England as a Cinderella story either. At 8 percent, the Patriots narrowly trail the Bills and Colts (9% each) among the top AFC candidates to hoist the Lombardi Trophy.
ESPN’s model isn’t quite as bullish. The Football Power Index (FPI) still favors Buffalo (58.2%) to defend the division title after Sunday’s massive win over the Kansas City Chiefs. The Bills are among seven teams with a higher playoff probability than the Patriots, but they’re still firmly in the driver’s seat with an 87.9 percent chance.
New England is the AFC’s only undefeated team on the road, and its plus-68 point differential matches Buffalo’s after salvaging a victory over Atlanta. A schedule that includes games against the New York Giants, Miami Dolphins, Cincinnati Bengals and two against the New York Jets also diminishes the likelihood of a second-half meltdown.
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The Patriots can prove their legitimacy when they face the 6-2 Tampa Bay Buccaneers on the road in Week 10.
Featured image via Mandatory Credit: Sam Navarro/Imagn Images
