ESPN Model Still Ranks Patriots Outside NFL’s Top-10 Teams

The New England Patriots have spent the 2025 season gradually turning skeptics into believers. Yet ESPN’s forecasting system isn’t on the bandwagon just yet.

New England enters Week 17 with a 12-3 record and playoff berth in hand. Mike Vrabel’s squad can capture the AFC East with a win and Buffalo Bills loss on Sunday, and the conference’s No. 1 seed remains in play.

Those facts have some onlookers buying the Patriots as legitimate Super Bowl contenders, but ESPN’s Football Power Index paints a different picture. The Patriots rank No. 11 in the model as of Saturday, garnering the same overall grade (1.1) as the 5-10 Cincinnati Bengals.

New England ranks seventh in FPI’s offensive component but 20th in defense and 16th in special teams. It appears the algorithm dings the Patriots for their opposition.

The Patriots have FPI’s easiest strength of schedule. They have just two wins against teams with a winning record (Bills and Carolina Panthers), and Buffalo is the only team New England has faced inside the top 10 of FPI.

New England isn’t the only playoff contender with a gripe. The Chicago Bears rank 13th behind the Bengals after clinching a playoff berth with their 11th victory in Week 16. The Panthers lead the NFC South at 8-7 but are right behind the two-win New York Giants at No. 23.

The Patriots may not sway FPI or any doubters by ending the regular season with wins over the New York Jets or Miami Dolphins. However, a strong finish will help their playoff positioning.