Who Will Patriots Face In Playoffs? Breaking Down 5 Wild-Card Scenarios

We know the Patriots will host a playoff game in January. But who will they face, and when?

Multiple scenarios — five, to be exact — remain in play entering Week 18. As AFC East champions, the Patriots will host a playoff game and won’t play against another division winner in the wild-card round, but that’s all we know at this point.

Before we break everything down, let’s look at the updated AFC standings.

IN PLAYOFFS
1. Denver Broncos (13-3, clinched division)
2. New England Patriots (13-3, clinched division)
3. Jacksonville Jaguars (12-4, clinched playoff spot)
4. Pittsburgh Steelers (9-7)
5. Houston Texans (11-5, clinched playoff spot)
6. Los Angeles Chargers (11-5, clinched playoff spot)
7. Buffalo Bills (11-5, clinched playoff spot)
IN THE HUNT
8. Baltimore Ravens (8-8)

As you can see, just one playoff spot is up for grabs this weekend. The Steelers will host the Ravens on Sunday, with the winner locking in the final AFC playoff spot and the loser being eliminated.

Now, let’s look at the five potential wild-card round scenarios for New England.

First-Round BYE

This is the most straightforward scenario. If the Patriots beat the Miami Dolphins at home on Sunday and the Broncos lose at home to the Chargers, New England will clinch the No. 1 seed and a first-round bye.

Unfortunately, the Chargers on Monday confirmed that star quarterback Justin Herbert won’t play in Week 18, thus making it difficult to envision Los Angeles pulling off an upset.

Vs. Bills

Here’s what needs to happen for the Patriots to host the Bills:

• Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC) and Bills lose (vs. NYJ)
• Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Jaguars win (vs. TEN) and Texans win (vs. IND)

Vs. Texans

Here’s what needs to happen for the Patriots to host the Texans:

• Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Texans loss (vs. IND), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Jaguars win (vs. TEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ)
• Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Chargers win (vs. DEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Colts win (vs. HOU)

Vs. Jaguars

Here’s what needs to happen for the Patriots to host the Jaguars:

• Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Chargers win (vs. DEN), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Texans win (vs. IND)

Vs. Chargers

Here’s what needs to happen for the Patriots to host the Chargers:

• Patriots win (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ)
• Patriots loss (vs. MIA), Broncos win (vs. LAC), Bills win (vs. NYJ), Titans win (vs. JAX) and Colts win (vs. HOU)

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Got all that? Good.

At first glance, the likeliest outcome seemingly is New England hosting Los Angeles on wild-card weekend. The Patriots should beat the Dolphins, the Bills should destroy the Jets, and the Chargers, with Trey Lance at quarterback, should lose in Denver.

However, anything could happen, especially if teams rest starters for long stretches of their games.