The New England Patriots came back to defeat a Lamar Jackson-less Baltimore Ravens team in Week 16 on “Sunday Night Football.”
Naysayers who point to the New England Patriots’ easy schedule this year as the primary reason for their success may now have even more ammo for their argument.
With the Patriots holding a 39.8% chance of earning the AFC’s No. 1 seed for the playoffs (per ESPN Analytics), ESPN.com senior NFL writer Bill Barnwell broke down the team’s chances of getting a first-round bye and winning the Super Bowl.
Barnwell described how, using Pro Football Reference’s simple rating system, New England has not only had the “easiest schedule in football in 2025,” but also one of the “easiest schedules in modern football history.
“By Pro Football Reference’s measure, the Patriots have played the 10th-easiest schedule of any team since the AFL-NFL merger in 1970, and the second easiest of any team in the 21st century. Easy doesn’t cut it; we’re talking about a generational gift of a slate of opponents, and that’s without even considering getting to play the Ravens — one of the few solid teams the Pats have faced — with their backup QB in for half the game,” Barnwell wrote. “Should that disqualify the Patriots from being taken seriously as Super Bowl contenders? If we use the same metric and look back into the past, the answer is no. Teams with easy schedules often post gaudy regular-season records, but when the competition gets tougher in the playoffs, they don’t stop winning there, either.”
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The insider noted that of the teams to play one of the 10 easiest schedules since the merger, three of them won the Super Bowl that year. Additionally, four of the 10 teams earned the top seeds in their conference’s playoffs.
“The 1999 Rams might be a good comparable for the Patriots, as a 4-12 team that came out of nowhere to suddenly catch fire and go 13-3 against an easy schedule and with an unexpected MVP at quarterback in Kurt Warner,” Barnwell said. “Losing to the Bills cost the Patriots a shot at controlling their own destiny, but if the Patriots can continue to beat inferior competition down the stretch, they’re next in line for the top spot in the AFC. And if they do land that top seed, don’t be surprised if their regular-season strength of schedule matters less than you think.”
The Patriots will clinch their first AFC East title in six years if they defeat the New York Jets in Week 17 and the Buffalo Bills lose to the Philadelphia Eagles.
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Featured image via Mitch Stringer/Imagn Images
